globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5618286
论文题名:
气候因子变化对广西上思县甘蔗产量影响分析
其他题名: Effects of climate factor changes on sugarcane yield in Shangsi county, Guangxi
作者: 许文龙; 莫权芳; 黄春华; 黄滢
刊名: 南方农业学报
ISSN: 2095-1191
出版年: 2015
卷: 46, 期:12, 页码:1511-1521
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 甘蔗 ; 产量 ; 气候因子 ; 气候变化 ; 广西上思县
英文关键词: sugarcane ; yield ; climatic factor ; climatic change ; Shangsi county, Guangxi
WOS学科分类: AGRONOMY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 【目的】分析影响广西上思县蔗区甘蔗产量气候因子的变化规律,为在甘蔗栽培、糖业生产、糖业贸易中针对气候因子的变化采取及时有效应对措施提供依据。【方法】采用线性倾向估计最小二乘法、累积距平法及Maim-Kendall法对近50年来影响广西上思县甘蔗产量的气候因子(年总降雨量、春季降雨量、后汛期降雨量、11月~翌年2月降雨量、年平均温度、9月上旬~10月上旬温度、3~10月积温和总日照时数、9月中旬~10月中旬温度日较差)趋势性、阶段性等进行分析。【结果】上思蔗区年平均温度、9月上旬~10月上旬平均温度、3~10月积温增加趋势显著,存在明显的突变;3~10月日照时数减少趋势显著,存在明显的突变;年降雨量、后汛期降雨量、11月~翌年2月降雨量有缓慢增多趋势,但增多趋势不显著,没有发生突变,存在明显的阶段性;春季降雨、9月中旬~10月中旬温度日较差减小趋势不显著,没有发生突变。【结论】上思蔗区温度因子升高趋势显著,降雨因子和日照因子增多趋势不显著,需做好防涝、抗旱的双重准备,同时要应对蔗区榨季雨水多带来的负面影响。
英文摘要: 【Objective】The change rules of climatic factors affecting sugarcane yield in Shangsi county, Guangxi were analyzed,in order to provide the basis for taking timely effective measures to cope with changes of climate factors in sug- arcane cultivation, sugar production and trade.【Method 】Using the least square method of linear trend estimation, the cumulative anomaly method (CA) and Mann-Kendall method, the trends and stages of climatic factors (total annual rain- fall, spring rainfall, after flood season rainfall, rainfall from November to next February, annual average temperature, temperature from early September to early October, accumulated temperature and total accumulated sunshine hours from March to October, diurnal temperature range from mid-September to mid-October) affecting sugarcane yield in recent 50 years in Shangsi county, Guangxi were analyzed.【Result】The results showed that, three climatic factors affecting sugarcane yield,including annual average temperature,average temperature from early September to early October and accumulated temperature from March to October, showed significant increasing trend, and had obvious sudden changes, sunshine dura- tion from March to October showed significant decreasing trend, and had obvious sudden changes. And the annual rain- fall, rainfall after flood season, rainfall from November to next February presented slow not-significant increasing trend, and had no obvious sudden change and some obvious stages. Furthermore, the spring rainfall and diurnal temperature range from mid-September to mid-October presented not-significant decreasing trend, had sudden changes.【Conclusion】 Rainfall and sunshine duration show non -significant increasing trend, but the temperature show significant increasing trend. Therefore, it is better to make double preparations for preventing drought and waterlogging, meanwhile, cope with negative impact caused by rainwater on sugarcane.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149579
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 防城港市气象局, 防城港, 广西 538001, 中国

Recommended Citation:
许文龙,莫权芳,黄春华,等. 气候因子变化对广西上思县甘蔗产量影响分析[J]. 南方农业学报,2015-01-01,46(12):1511-1521
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