globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5388274
论文题名:
气候变化下四川盆地气候生产力时空响应
其他题名: Temporal and spatial responses of crop climatic productivity to climate change in Sichuan Basin
作者: 曹永旺; 延军平
刊名: 农业现代化研究
ISSN: 1000-0275
出版年: 2015
卷: 36, 期:2, 页码:1531-1539
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候生产力 ; 气候变化 ; 时空演变 ; 响应 ; 四川盆地
英文关键词: climatic productivity ; climate change ; spatial-temporal distribution ; response ; Sichuan Basin
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用四川盆地21个站点1961-2012年气象资料,应用Thomthwaite Memorial 模型、EOF 等数理方法对该区近52a 气温、降水和气候生产力的时空变化进行分析。结果显示:1)四川盆地的气温倾向率为0.095 ℃/10 a,降水倾向率为-21.461 mm/10 a,暖干化是该区主要的气候变化特征,气候生产力以-4.91 kg/(hm~2·10 a)的速率减少。2)四川盆地年均气温自南向北递减,气候倾向率中间低、两侧高;年降水量则中间低、两侧高;植物气候生产潜力除东北部的万源、达县、奉节外,其余地区均呈减少趋势。3)对不同气候变化情景分别计算气候生产力可知,暖湿型气候环境对该区气候生产力最有利,增产范围为5.74%-16.77%;冷干型气候环境则对气候生产力最不利,减产范围为5.92%-18.53%。当降水量减少幅度在10%以内,区域气候生产力是有利的;一旦降水量的减少幅度超过10%,区域气候生产力将有所减少,农业发展的不稳定性也将增加。
英文摘要: Based on the weather data of 21 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2012, we analyzed the climate change trends and obtained the space-time distribution of crop climatic productivity during the past 52 years by using the Thomthwaite Memorial model and the EOF method. The results indicated that the warming-drought pattern was the main characteristic of climate change in Sichuan Basin, of which the linear tendencies of temperature, precipitation and crop climatic productivity were changed at the rates of 0.095 ℃/10 a, -21.461 mm/10 a, and -4.91 kg/(hm~2·10 a), respectively. Spatially, the annual average temperature increased from north to south, while the annual precipitation showed a clear basin-shaped distribution. The crop climatic productivity generally showed a decreasing trend, except for the northeast cities such as Wanyuan, Daxian and Fengjie. When the crop climatic productivity was estimated under various climate change scenarios, the warming and humid climate environment was the most favorable for developing agriculture, by which crop yields might be increased by 5.74%-16.77%. In contrast, the cold and dry climate environment was the most unfavorable, by which crop yields might be decreased by 5.92%-18.53%. In general, we found that the crop climatic productivity in Sichuan Basin may show a gain if the precipitation is decreased by less 10%.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149644
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国

Recommended Citation:
曹永旺,延军平. 气候变化下四川盆地气候生产力时空响应[J]. 农业现代化研究,2015-01-01,36(2):1531-1539
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