globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5347349
论文题名:
气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析
其他题名: Coincidence Probability of Urban Rainstorm in Bengbu and Flood in the Upper Reaches of Huaihe River Under Climate Change
作者: 陆桂华1; 张亚洲1; 肖恒1; 刘志雨2; 胡健伟2; 吴志勇1
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期:1, 页码:153-157
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; VIC模型 ; Copula函数 ; 暴雨 ; 洪水 ; 遭遇概率 ; 预估
英文关键词: climate change ; VIC model ; Copula function ; rainstorm ; flood ; coincidence probability ; projection
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 利用6个全球/区域气候模式和VIC模型,预估了IPCC RCPs情景下2021-2050年淮河干流蚌埠水文站(吴家渡断面)的日流量过程。在此基础上,运用Copula函数构建了蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率模型,分析了RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下不同重现期暴雨和洪水组合遭遇概率的变化趋势。结果表明,2021-2050年多模式预估上游洪水与城市暴雨遭遇的概率较基准期(1971-2000年)有所增大,具有较高的一致性,平均增幅46%~79%。暴雨与洪水遭遇概率的增大,将会增加未来蚌埠市防洪工作的难度。
英文摘要: Based on five global climate models, one regional climate model and the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model, daily discharge from Bengbu station was estimated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2021-2050. A probability model based on Copula function was established to analyze future coincidence probability changes of urban rainstorm in Bengbu and flood in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Relative to the baseline period (1971-2000), the coincidence probabilities of different combinations of rainfall and flood estimated by multi-model ensembles will increase with a range of 46%-79% in the future (2021-2050), which is likely to increase the pressure on urban flood control in Bengbu.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149649
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.河海大学水问题研究所, 南京, 江苏 210098, 中国
2.水利部水利信息中心, 北京 100053, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陆桂华,张亚洲,肖恒,等. 气候变化背景下蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2015-01-01,11(1):153-157
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[陆桂华]'s Articles
[张亚洲]'s Articles
[肖恒]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[陆桂华]'s Articles
[张亚洲]'s Articles
[肖恒]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[陆桂华]‘s Articles
[张亚洲]‘s Articles
[肖恒]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.