globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5347350
论文题名:
气候变化背景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性研究
其他题名: Study on the Sensitivity of Wheat Water Requirement Under Future Climate Change
作者: 雒新萍1; 夏军2
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期:1, 页码:153-158
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 小麦需水量 ; 气候变化 ; 敏感性 ; CROPWAT模型
英文关键词: wheat water requirement ; climate change ; sensitivity ; CROPWAT model
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 利用CROPWAT作物模型模拟分析了过去50年(1961-2010年)及IPCC RCPs情景下未来2020年代(2020-2029年)中国小麦需水量的变化情况。在此基础上,以小麦需水量的变化率作为敏感性因子,对RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性进行了探讨。结果表明:中国小麦多年平均需水量约为1056.4亿m~3,最高值位于黄淮海地区。小麦需水量对气候变化的敏感性存在空间差异,华北和西北地区是小麦需水量的重度和极度敏感区,东北地区以及云贵高原地带是小麦需水量的轻度敏感区,而中国中部及南方部分地区的小麦需水量对气候变化不敏感。不同RCP排放情景下小麦需水量的敏感性分布不同,RCP8.5高排放情景下的小麦需水量敏感性区域比RCP4.5中排放情景下明显扩大,轻度和中度敏感区域扩大尤为明显。
英文摘要: By using CROPWAT model, the wheat water requirement in 1961-2010 and 2020s (2020-2029) under IPCC RCPs scenarios were simulated. Defining the change rate of wheat water requirement as a sensitive factor, the sensitivity of wheat water requirement in China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were discussed. The results showed that the mean annual wheat water requirement in China was 105.64 billion m~3 and the highest value was located in Huang-Huai-Hai regions. Wheat water requirement in most areas of China tends to be sensitive to climate change. The highly and extremely sensitive regions in terms of wheat water requirement will be distributed in North and Northwest China. And the lightly sensitive areas will be distributed in Northeast China and Yungui Plateau, while in the middle and south of China, the wheat water requirement will not be sensitive to climate change. Moreover, the sensitivity spatial distribution of wheat water requirement is different under various RCP emission scenarios, while the lightly and moderately sensitive areas in terms of wheat water requirement under RCP8.5 scenario become larger significantly than under the RCP4.5 scenario.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149650
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
2.武汉大学, 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
3.中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 武汉, 北京 430072, 中国

Recommended Citation:
雒新萍,夏军. 气候变化背景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2015-01-01,11(1):153-158
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