globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5390256
论文题名:
1961-2010年我国夏季总降水和极端降水的变化
其他题名: Changes of Summer Rainfall and Extreme Precipitation During 1961-2010 in China
作者: 曾颖婷; 陆尔
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期:2, 页码:153-161
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 夏季降水 ; 极端降水 ; 全球变暖 ; 泊松回归
英文关键词: summer rainfall ; daily extreme precipitation ; global warming ; Poisson regression
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 利用1961 2010年我国753站逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了近50年我国夏季降水的变化,包括夏季总降水量、极端降水量和极端降水频次的变化。结果表明,夏季总降水量和极端降水量的空间分布大致相似,在我国东南和西南部呈上升趋势,在东北和西北部呈下降趋势。用泊松回归拟合出的极端降水频次变化趋势显示,江淮流域及其以南地区测站的降水频次普遍增加,以北地区则呈减少趋势。进一步分析得到,我国大部分地区的夏季总降水量变化由降水平均强度的变化引起,而极端降水量的变化多由降水频次的变化引起。通过比较温度和水汽变化对降水量变化影响的相对重要性得到:在黄河以北大多数地区,水汽变化主导夏季总降水量的变化;而在江淮流域及华南大部分地区,温度变化为主导。
英文摘要: Using the daily precipitation data from 753 stations in China during 19612010 and reanalysis data, the changes of summer precipitation, including the changes of the summer rainfall total, the rainfall amount of extreme precipitation, and the frequency of extreme precipitation, were investigated. These changes are similar in spatial patterns, with increasing changes over the south, and decreasing changes over the north. The Poisson regression was used to investigate the change of the frequency of extreme precipitation. The frequency increased over the Yangtze River basin and South China, and decreased over the region to the north of the Huaihe River basin. It is found with a new diagnosis tool that at most stations, the change of the the summer rainfall total is dominated by the change of intensity, and the change of the rainfall amount of extreme precipitation is dominated by the change of frequency. The relative importance of the changes in moisture and air temperature in the variability of summer rainfall total was also analyzed. In most areas north to the Yellow River, the variability of the summer rainfall total is dominated by the moisture change, while over the Yangtze River basin and South China, it is dominated by the air temperature change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149655
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 气象灾害江苏省省部共建教育部重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
曾颖婷,陆尔. 1961-2010年我国夏季总降水和极端降水的变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2015-01-01,11(2):153-161
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