globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5427520
论文题名:
2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化
其他题名: Mean and Extreme Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with a 2°C Global Warming
作者: 李红梅; 李林
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期:3, 页码:153-161
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 2℃全球变暖 ; 青藏高原 ; 平均气候状态 ; 极端气候事件
英文关键词: 2 °C global warming ; the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau ; mean climate ; extreme climate events
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 利用CMIP5耦合模式RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预估结果,以1890 1900年为基准气候,确定了2℃全球变暖时间、对应时期青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化幅度,多模式集合平均结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2℃全球变暖分别发生在2063年、2040年和2036年;对应着2℃全球变暖,三种情景下青藏高原平均气温分别升高2.99℃、3.22℃和3.28℃,均超过全球2 ℃的升温水平;年降水量亦增加,分别增加8.35%、7.16%和7.63%。受气温升高和降水量增多影响,RCP4.5情景下霜冻日数、冰封日数减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数增多;RCP4.5情景下中雨日数、强降水量、降水强度均增加,持续干期天数减少。从各地平均气候和极端气候事件变化结果来看,柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。
英文摘要: Based on the output of CMIP5 coupling models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the time with a 2 °C global warming was detected, taking 1890-1900 as a baseline climatology. The mean climate change and extreme climate events over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at that time were compared with the baseline climatology. The results show that 2 °C global warming will appear respectively in 2063, 2040 and 2036 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios, and the temperature of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau will increase 2.99 °C, 3.22 °C and 3.28 °C respectively, which are higher than 2 °C of global warming level. The annual precipitation will also increase, and the anomaly percentage is 8.35%, 7.16% and 7.63% respectively. Affected by the temperature and precipitation increasing, the frost days and frozen days will reduce; the days of warm night and warm day will increase; the moderate rain days, strong precipitation, and precipitation intensity will increase; the days of continuous drought will decrease under RCP4.5 scenario. Chaidam Basin is a sensitive area to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau according to the change results of mean climate and extreme climate events.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149656
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作者单位: 青海省气候中心, 西宁, 青海 810001, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李红梅,李林. 2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2015-01-01,11(3):153-161
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