globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5578907
论文题名:
2℃温升目标下中国排放配额分析
其他题名: Analysis of China's Emission Allowances Under the 2℃ Target
作者: 潘勋章1; 滕飞2
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期:6, 页码:15-38
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 排放配额 ; 参数敏感性 ; 历史责任
英文关键词: climate change ; emission allowance ; parameter sensitivity ; historical responsibility
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 本文以国际社会当前所有主要分配方案为基础,研究了2℃温升目标下中国2011-2050年间排放配额,通过控制变量进一步分析了配额分配对于主要参数设置的敏感性。研究结果表明,在与2℃目标相兼容的RCP2.6路径下,到2050年中国CO_2累计排放配额范围为150~440 Gt CO_2,基于等人均排放的分配方式已经变得最不利于中国。为维护合理的排放权益,在气候谈判中中国必须坚持对历史排放的完整追溯。全球排放路径的设定对中国配额也有着非常显著的影响,当2050年全球配额比2010年排放减少40%~50%时,中国在2℃目标下CO_2累计配额范围为151~474 Gt CO_2,当减少50%~60%时为138~478 Gt CO_2,构成中国配额公平范围下限的方案受排放路径的影响更大。
英文摘要: Focused on the main allocation schemes in the international community at present, China's emission allowances during 2011-2050 under the 2℃ target are studied in this paper. The sensitivity of parameter settings are further analyzed by controlling key variables. The results indicate that to follow the RCP2.6 pathway consistent with the 2℃ target, China would receive allowances around 150-440 Gt CO_2 until 2050. However, the schemes purely based on equal per capita emission have already been the most unfavorable to China. To preserve reasonable emission rights, China should insist on the full coverage of historical responsibilities in climate negotiations. The choice of global emission pathways will significantly affect China's allowances. If the global budget is reduced by 40%-50% compared with the 2010 level, the range of China's CO_2 allowances is 151-474 Gt CO_2. If the reduction increases to 50%-60%, the range changes to 138-478 Gt CO_2. It shows that the floor of China's fair range will be relied on the global pathway more greatly.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149671
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院, 北京 102249, 中国
2.清华大学能源环境经济研究所, 北京 100084, 中国

Recommended Citation:
潘勋章,滕飞. 2℃温升目标下中国排放配额分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2015-01-01,11(6):15-38
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