globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5413152
论文题名:
气候变暖对花叶藓属植物在中国的潜在分布范围影响的预测
其他题名: Influences of climatic warming on potential distribution regions of Calymperes in China
作者: 程军; 沈阳; 郭水良
刊名: 生态科学
ISSN: 1008-8873
出版年: 2015
卷: 34, 期:1, 页码:1563-1570
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 花叶藓属 ; 气候变暖 ; 潜在分布区 ; 预测
英文关键词: MaxEnt ; Camlyperes ; climate warming ; MaxEnt ; potential distribution region ; prediction
WOS学科分类: PLANT SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Plant Sciences
中文摘要: 文章应用当前和基于RCP45CO2排放情景下2050和2070的11个生物气候数据,以及花叶藓属(Calymperes)18个国内分布记录,应用MaxEnt模型和ArCGiS9.3软件,预测了气候变暖背景下这两属植物在我国南部41个自然保护区潜在分布范围的变化。结果表明,当前气候条件下,花叶藓属植物在我国的海南岛、台湾岛的南部地区有较高的气候适应性。在研究的41个自然保护区中,有26个自然保护区花叶藓属植物的的气候适应指数在阈值以上,花叶藓属分布与纬度的关系极为明显,随着纬度(X)的增加,花叶藓属植物的气候适应指数(Y)呈指数式下降,两者的关系为:Y = 19.9650X~((-0.057x)) (r=0.9445, P<0.01)。到了2050年,有32个自然保护区的气候适合于花叶藓属植物的分布,到了2070年,除了陕西的佛坪和四川贡嘎山保护区外,其余的39个自然保护区的气候均适合于花叶藓属植物的分布。就全国范围来讲,当前、2050、2070年气候条件下花叶藓属的潜在分布区面积百分比分别为5.39%、7.66%和15.56%,综合适宜指数分别为0.0682、0.0817和0.1117。随着气候的变暖,花叶藓属植物的适生面积在不断地扩大,综合气候适应指数也在持续地变高。最冷季节的平均温度对我国境内花叶藓属植物的分布受的影响最大,其次是温度季节变化、年温度变化范围和最干季度平均温度,四者的贡献率分别是77.1%、10.2%、 7.3%和4.8%。花叶藓属植物的分布概率随着最冷季节、最干季节平均温度的上升而上升,随着温度季节变化值、年温度变化范围和昼夜温差月均值的上升而下降。
英文摘要: Based on eleven bio-climatic data under current condition (1950-2000), 2050 and 2070 climatic condition under RCP45CO2 emission scenarios, and 18 geographical records of Calymperes in China, MaxEnt models and ArcGis 9.3 software were applied to predict the change of the potential distribution of the genus in 41 Reserves in China. The main results are as follows: 1) under the present climatic conditions, the genera Calymperes have the highest climatic adaptation indices in Hainan and Taiwan islands. Among the 41 reserves, 26 have suitable climatic conditions for Calymperes. Latitude is a key factor influencing the distribution of Calymperes. The relationship of the integrated climatic adaptation index (Y) and Latitude (X) follows Y= 19.9650X~((-0.057x)) (r=0.9445, P<0.01); 2) under the climatic conditions in 2050, there are 32 Reserves with suitable climatic conditions for Calymperes, while in 2070, except for Gonggashan (Sichuan Province) and Foping (Shannx Province), all the other 39 Reserves would have suitable climatic conditions for the genus. The area percentage of potential distribution regions under current, 2050 and 2070 climatic conditions are 5.39%, 7.66% and 15.56%, respectively, with their integrated climatic adaptation indexes being 0.0682, 0.0817, and 0.1117, respectively. As the climate became warming, the regions climatic became suitable for Calymperes expanding; 3) The average temperature of the coldest quarter is the most important factor influencing the distribution of Calymperes, followed by temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, and mean temperature of driest quarter, with their relative contribution percentage being 77.1%, 10.2%, 7.3% and 4.8%, respectively. With the increase of the average temperature of the coldest quarter and that of the driest quarter, the logistic distribution probability of Calymperes would increase, while with the increase of the temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, and mean diurnal temperature range, the logistic distribution probability of Calymperes would decrease.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149748
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 上海师范大学生命与环境科学学院, 上海 200234, 中国

Recommended Citation:
程军,沈阳,郭水良. 气候变暖对花叶藓属植物在中国的潜在分布范围影响的预测[J]. 生态科学,2015-01-01,34(1):1563-1570
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