globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5426863
论文题名:
基于SWAT模型的青龙河流域气候变化径流响应研究
其他题名: Runoff responses to climate change in Qinglong river watershed based on SWAT model
作者: 屈吉鸿1; 石红旺2; 李志岩2
刊名: 水力发电学报
ISSN: 1003-1243
出版年: 2015
卷: 34, 期:4, 页码:165-171
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水文学 ; SWAT模型 ; 径流 ; SUFI2算法 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: hydrology ; SWAT model ; runoff ; SUFI2 algorithm ; climate changey
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 气候变化影响水资源时空分布,为探讨气候气候变化对径流的影响,以青龙河流域为研究区,依据流域DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象水文等数据,建立了SWAT流域水文模型,采用SWAT-CUP软件内嵌的SUFI2算法,根据t-Stat和p-Values值分析了参数敏感性,采用P_(factor)、R_(factor)、Nash-Suttcliffe系数E_(ns)及相关系数R~2四个指标评价了模型的适用性,结果表明流域水文模型模拟精度高,不确定性小,能较真实地模拟流域的水文过程。采用气候方案假定法,利用流域分布式水文模型,模拟丰、平、枯三种水平年降雨量和温度组合因素下的径流过程。结果表明降水量和气温的变化影响径流过程,其中降水的影响较为明显,是影响该流域水资源变化的主要因素。
英文摘要: Climate change impacts on temporal and spatial patterns of water resources and assessment of this impact is important. To study runoff responses to climate change, we developed a distributed hydrological model of the Qinglong River watershed on the platform of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), accounting for digital elevation models of the watershed and its data of land use, soil types, etc. A sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI2) algorithm in SWAT-CUP software was used for sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation, and uncertainty analysis, including sensitivity analysis on the t-Stat and p-Values and model evaluation in terms of efficiency coefficient E_(ns) and its correlation coefficient R~2,P_(factor), and R_(factor). The results indicate that this model based SWAT is applicable to river watershed runoff modeling. In its application to simulations of the river runoff in different level years, hypothetical schemes of climate change were designed by combinations of precipitation and temperature conditions. Simulations show a significant influence of climate change on runoff. The runoff is increased by an increase in precipitation or air temperature and it is more sensitive to precipitation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149939
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.华北水利水电大学, 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 郑州, 河南 450011, 中国
2.华北水利水电大学, 郑州, 河南 450011, 中国

Recommended Citation:
屈吉鸿,石红旺,李志岩. 基于SWAT模型的青龙河流域气候变化径流响应研究[J]. 水力发电学报,2015-01-01,34(4):165-171
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