globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5528272
论文题名:
珠江流域非平稳性降雨极值时空变化特征及其成因
其他题名: Spatiotemporal variations and the causes of non-stationary extreme precipitation in the Pearl River basin
作者: 吴孝情1; 陈晓宏1; 唐亦汉1; 王兆礼2; 赖成光1
刊名: 水利学报
ISSN: 0559-9350
出版年: 2015
卷: 46, 期:9, 页码:1659-1671
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 极端降雨 ; 时空变化特征 ; 非平稳性 ; 广义帕累托分布 ; 时变参数 ; 珠江流域
英文关键词: extreme precipitation ; spatiotemporal variations ; non-stationary ; Generalized Pareto distribution ; time-varying parameters ; Pearl River basin
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,珠江流域极端降雨事件发生的频次和强度均发生变化,变化环境导致极端降雨样本存在非平稳性。本文以珠江流域43个站点19602012年的日降雨数据为基础资料,通过分析广义帕累托分布(GPD)的参数时变特性及其空间分布规律,探索珠江流域非平稳性极端降雨的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明:珠江流域极端降雨序列的极值指数呈从东到西逐渐减小特点,表征强降雨之间的相关性由东向西减弱;极端降雨变化程度大的区域其变化程度呈减弱趋势,而变化程度小的区域其变化程度呈加强趋势;珠江三角洲和东江流域南部、柳江流域东北部地区50/100年一遇的日降雨量级较大,而南盘江西部地区则较小。7个影响因子中,厄尔尼诺指标(SMEI)对流域的极端降雨影响最明显。非平稳时变超定量(POT)模型与平稳POT模型的结果比较表明,本文提出的时变POT模型较好地处理了珠江流域部分区域降雨存在的非平稳性特征。
英文摘要: Due to global climate change and the growing impact of human activity,frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin are changed,and the consistency of non-stationary extreme precipitation no longer be guaranteed under changing environment. This paper attempts to explore the spatiotemporal variations and the causes of non-stationary extreme precipitation using time-varying Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on daily rainfall of 43 sites during 1960-2012 in the Pearl River basin. The results show that the extreme value index of extreme precipitation sequence decreases gradually from east to west, which indicates that the correlations of the extreme precipitations reduce from east to west. The region with large variationof extreme precipitation at present tends to weaken,and on the contrary,the region with small variation of extreme precipitation at present tends to strengthen. The amount of 50- and 100-years return period daily precipitation in the Pearl River delta,the southern of the Dongjiang River basin and the northeastern of Liujiang River basin is greater than that in the western region of the Nanpan River basin. The SME index of ENSO is the most significant factor of extreme precipitation among the 7 factors. The comparative result of the time varying POT model and stationary POT model shows that the time varying POT model of non-stationary proposed in this paper can better overcome the problem of non-stationary characteristics in parts of the study basin.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149955
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心, 华南地区水循环和水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国
2.华南理工大学土木与交通学院, 广州, 广东 510641, 中国

Recommended Citation:
吴孝情,陈晓宏,唐亦汉,等. 珠江流域非平稳性降雨极值时空变化特征及其成因[J]. 水利学报,2015-01-01,46(9):1659-1671
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