globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5489186
论文题名:
江西省历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测
其他题名: Analysis on Historical Weather and Prediction of Future Climate Change in Jiangxi Province
作者: 鲁向晖1; 白桦1; 吕娅1; 赵本嘉2
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2015
卷: 22, 期:4, 页码:1671-1677
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气象 ; 分析 ; 预测 ; 江西省
英文关键词: meteorology ; analyze ; prediction ; Jiangxi Province
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 在全球气温变暖的大背景下,基于江西省15个国家气象站点19612012年气象观测资料和政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)《第四次评估报告》提供的全球气候模式(GCM)资料,采用线性回归等气候学统计方法,分析了江西省历史气象特征,并对未来气候变化进行了预测。结果表明,19612012年全省、赣南、赣中、赣北降雨量上升趋势不显著,由南往北降雨量增加;19612012年多年年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温增温速率分别为0.16,0.12,0.22℃/10a,区域间增温速率由南往北递增;预测江西省未来20202079年期间,在A_2,B_1排放情景下年均降雨量比历史基准期减少率分别为18.87%, 10.13%;A_2,B_1排放情景下20202079年多年年均气温增温速率分别为0.41,0.22℃/10a。
英文摘要: In the background of the global warming,we analyzed the historical meteorological characteristics and predicted future climate change in Jiangxi Province based on the data from 15 meteorological stations and the global climate model(GCM)data provided by the fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Some climatology statistical methods such as linear regression were used in this paper.The results showed that from 1961 to 2012,that upward trend in rainfall was not obvious in Jiangxi Province including the south part,the middle part and the north part,and the rainfall increased gradually from south to north,it was also found out that,from 1961 to 2012,the annual average temperature,highest temperature,lowest temperature warming rate were 0.16,0.12 and 0.22℃/10 a,the regional warming rate increased progressively from south to north.As predicted,in the future from 2020 to 2079,under the condition of A_2,B_1 emissions scenario,the decrement rates of annual average rainfall in Jiangxi Province will be 18.87%and 10.13%,respectively,compared to the historical reference period.From 2020 to 2079,under the condition of A_2,B_1 emissions scenario,the annual average temperature warming rate for many years in Jiangxi Province will be 0.41 and 0.22℃/10 a,respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149979
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南昌工程学院水利与生态工程学院, 南昌, 江西 330099, 中国
2.福建师范大学地理科学学院, 福州, 福建 350108, 中国

Recommended Citation:
鲁向晖,白桦,吕娅,等. 江西省历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测[J]. 水土保持研究,2015-01-01,22(4):1671-1677
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