globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5573861
论文题名:
基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征
其他题名: Analysis on the Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Dingxi Based on R/S and Mann-Kendall Test
作者: 张涵丹1; 卫伟1; 薛萐2
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2015
卷: 22, 期:6, 页码:167-174
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 趋势 ; 突变性检验 ; 特征
英文关键词: climate change ; trend ; abrupt change detection ; characteristics
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 黄土丘陵区生态脆弱、环境恶劣,对气候变化的响应复杂而敏感。研究以地处黄土丘陵区西南缘的定西市为研究对象,采用线性方程、5a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验、R/S分析等方法,基于逐日气象数据,以此分析定西市1960-2004年间气温和降水的动态变化,以期为该地区合理开展农业生产和植被恢复提供依据。结果表明:(1)温度方面,45a来,定西市气温呈上升趋势,其Hurst指数H>0.5,表明在之后的一定时段内气温将持续上升,1994年为定西市气温突变开始的时间;同时,升温速率表现出明显的季节性差异;定西市极端气候变化显著,最大增温趋势出现在冬季,暖冬现象较为明显。(2)降水方面,1960年以来定西市降水量呈下降趋势,且以夏秋季下降为主,降水量变化无明显的突变现象,其Hurst指数H<0.5,说明未来将呈现反持续性趋势。定西市未来气候将由暖干型向暖湿型转变。
英文摘要: The loess hilly region has long been characterized by its fragile ecosystem and deteriorated environment. The local natural conditions are very sensitive to climate change.Dingxi,located in the southwest of the Loess Plateau,was selected as a typical example to detect the basic features of local climate variation. Linear equation,5-year moving-average,climatic tendency,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis methods were used to analyze the meteorological data.Results showed that:(1)the temperature gradually increased during the past 45 years and would continue to increase with the Hurst index greater than 0.5;the temperature was testified to rise by a clear abrupt in 1994;meanwhile,the increase rate of temperature differed in different seasons,extreme climate events were confirmed in Dingxi during the monitored years;it increased sharply in winter,showing an obvious warm-winter phenomenon;(2)the precipitation had decreased gradually since 1960s,particularly during the summer and autumn periods,no abrupt changes were detected,and the Hurst index was less than 0.5,indicating that the precipitation will tend to increase in the forthcoming years.Generally,the climate in Dingxi region possibly will transfer from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/149987
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心, 城市与区域生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100085, 中国
2.中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐. 基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J]. 水土保持研究,2015-01-01,22(6):167-174
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