globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5350398
论文题名:
南水北调西线引水区近50年径流变化趋势对气候变化的响应
其他题名: RUNOFF CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST ROUTE OF SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT OVER THE PAST 50YEARS
作者: 杨鹏鹏; 黄晓荣; 柴雪蕊; 赵静薇
刊名: 长江流域资源与环境
ISSN: 1004-8227
出版年: 2015
卷: 24, 期:2, 页码:1745-1754
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 径流变化 ; Mann-Kendall检验 ; 气候变化 ; 相关性分析
英文关键词: runoff change ; Mann-Kendall test ; climate change ; correlation analysis
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 选取南水北调西线工程引水区5个水文站与相应气象站近50a径流、降雨、温度、日照时间序列资料,首先对自相关性显著水平5%的序列进行去白化处理,运用 Mann-Kendall法进行趋势检验和突变分析,并通过Spearman法和双累积曲线图形法对结果进行验证。此外,运用Pearson方法分析径流与各气候因子间的相关性。结果表明:50a来,引水区年径流量变化趋势总体不明显,但近10a来,除直门达水文站外,其余4个站有进一步减少的趋势;雨量和日照时间变化趋势并不明显,温度有较显著升高。总体而言,气候变化是流域径流量变化的主要影响因素,未来径流量变化还需从气温、降水、径流、冰川等时空分布特性综合研究。
英文摘要: The West Works in South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an important trans-basin water diversion project to divert water from the upstream main stream and tributaries of the Yangze River (referred as source area)to upstream of the Yellow River(referred as target area).In the West Route Works,dams shall be constructed on the Jinsha River,which is the main stream of the Yangze River,the Yalong River and the Dadu River which are the tributaries of the Yangze River,with the dam sites at El.3 000-4 000 m,and water is diverted to the upstream of the Yellow River by diversion tunnels through the Bayankala Mountain which is the divide between the Yangze River and the Yellow River,with the diverted water amount of 8 billion m~3,6.45 billion m~3,and 2.55 billion m~3 respectively,annual totaling 17 billion m~3.This can compensate for the insufficiency of the Yellow River water resources and resolve the water resources shortage problems.Because of large water diversion amount,long diversion route,many water source points,difficult construction,remarkable benefit,etc.,the West Route Works in South-to-North Water Diversion Project is regarded as the greatest trans-basin water diversion works in the world.The source area is located in the southeast of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau at north latitude 31°30′-35°30′and east longitude 90°30′-103°30′,including the areas upstream of Zhimenda on the Tongtian River (Jinsha River),area upstream of Ganzi and Daofu on the Yalong River,and area upstream of Zumuzu and Zhuosijia on the Dadu River,with a total area of 220 000km~2.This area is at El.3 000-4 500 m,with the daily mean air temperature below 0°for a period of 5-8 months in a year.Based on the runoff,precipitation,temperature and sunshine duration series of 5hydrological stations and corresponding meteorological stations in West route of South-to-North water Diversion Project over the past 50 years,significant autocorrelations at a 5%level in series were identified and removed by the Pre-Whiten method.The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends and abrupt change,which were validated by the Spearman test and Double Mass Curve technique.Moreover,the Pearson method was applied to analyze the correlations between runoff and various climatic factors.The results indicated that in the recent 50 years,the runoff does not change obviously,but in the past decade,it has a further decreased trend except Zhimenda.Precipitation and sunshine have no obviously trend,in contrast,the temperature increases significantly.On the whole,runoff is mainly affected by climate change and the changes of runoff in future need a comprehensive study on spatial and temporal distribution of temperature,precipitation,runoff,glaciers,etc.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150152
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 四川大学, 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨鹏鹏,黄晓荣,柴雪蕊,等. 南水北调西线引水区近50年径流变化趋势对气候变化的响应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2015-01-01,24(2):1745-1754
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