globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5434149
论文题名:
中国能源CO_2排放峰值方案及政策建议
其他题名: Scheme and Policies for Peaking Energy Carbon Emissions in China
作者: 毕超
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2015
卷: 25, 期:5, 页码:182-190
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 能源活动 ; CO_2排放 ; 峰值 ; 方案 ; 政策研究
英文关键词: energy activities ; carbon emissions ; peak scheme ; policy recommendations
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 能源活动贡献了CO_2排放总量的主要部分。2014年11月,我国政府通过《中美气候变化联合声明》,首次正式提出于2030年左右实现CO_2排放峰值,显然,未来时期我国CO_2排放总量的峰值取决于能源活动CO_2排放的峰值,能源活动CO_2排放量又取决于能源消费总量和结构,而能源消费总量和结构又从根本上取决于经济、产业、人口发展和资源环境约束及宏观能源经济财税政策设计。鉴于经济、产业、人口发展、资源环境约束及能源经济政策制度设计对能源消费总量结构、CO_2排放的复杂影响机制,本文基于能流图和能源供应消费成本最小化原理,构建跨期能源系统优化和碳排放模型IESOCEM作为定量研究工具,从新常态下我国2015-2050年经济、产业、人口等宏观指标预期发展水平出发,预测出能源服务需求量,并考虑已有能源政策目标的硬性约束,对未来时期能源消费总量结构及CO_2排放量进行测算得出如下经济可行的峰值方案:一次能源消费总量将从2015年的39.1亿tce逐步增长到2050年的62.65亿tce,年度能源消费总量的增速逐步趋缓,从2015年的年度同比增速1.8%逐步降低到2050年度的0.6%;煤炭占一次能源消费总量比重将从64%持续降低到45%,石油占比从17%下降到8%,天然气占比从7%上升到11%,非化石能源占比将从12%上升到36%;能源活动CO_2排放量经历先较快增长达到峰值后缓慢下降的趋势,从2015年的80.1亿t增长到2030的93.5亿t,2015-2030年平均每年增加排放0.89亿tCO_2,并在2030年达到峰值,此后CO_2排放开始缓慢下降,逐步下降到2050年的91.5亿t,2031-2050年平均每年减少排放0.1亿t。将我国能源活动CO_2排放峰值方案与2013年能源消费及CO_2排放实际情况进行对比分析的基础上,本文提出了我国能源活动CO_2排放2030年达到峰值的政策建议:一是鼓励推广采用公私合作模式,吸引民间资本投入可再生能源基础设施建设,大力开发和利用可再生能源,促使可再生能源在未来能源消费增量中占绝对优势,同时加快可再生能源对化石能源消费存量的替代;二是由我国发起成立天然气进口国家联盟组织,增强天然气进口议价权,积极进口利用海外天然气资源,鼓励民间资本投入,加快国内天然气管网和储气设施建设;三是改革完善资源税、环境保护税、消费税制度,从宏观财税制度设计上加快推动能源资源利用的集约低碳转型。
英文摘要: In November 2014, China Government officially proposed for the first time through U. S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change that China would achieve its CO_2 emissions peak around 2030. Energy activities contribute more than 90% to total CO_2 emissions in China. Energy carbon emission mitigation is essential for the 2030 peak goal. It is known that the energy carbon emission is determined by the total energy consumption and its structure. And the total energy consumption and its structure is determined by macroeconomic and social factors such as GDP growth, total populations and its structure, industrial structure, energy policies, fiscal institutions and so on. So the research of carbon emission peak should base on macroeconomic and social factors such as GDP growth, total populations and its structure, industrial structure, energy policies. In order to quantitatively analyze the path of carbon emission from energy consumption and overcome the complexities of the mechanism between the macro economy and the energy carbon emission, IESOCEM (Intertemporal Energy System Optimization and Carbon Emission Model) has been established and adopted in this paper on the basis of reference energy system and mathematics programming algorithm using the platform of GAMS. Firstly, some macro indicators in the period of 2015-2050 such as GDP growth, total populations and its structure, industrial structure are assumed according to the New Normal Trend. Then the energy services demands have been forecasted accordingly, which drives the IESOCEM model to compute the total energy consumption and its structure and carbon emission as an economic and feasible scheme for the 2030 carbon emission peak goal. The computed scheme is as follows:the total energy consumption will increase gradually from 3. 91 billion tce(tonne of standard coal equivalent) in 2015 to 6. 265 billion tce in 2050 with annual growth rate slowing from 1. 8% to 0. 6%;the percentage of coal in the total primary energy consumption will drop from 64% in 2015 to 45% in 2050, while oil from 17% to 8%, natural gas from 7% to 11%, non-fossil energy from 12% to 36%; CO_2 emission will experience fast growth in the period of 2015-2030 from 8. 01 billion tonnes to 9. 35 billion tonnes arriving the peak with the average growth rate of 89 million tonnes per year, then decline slowly to 9. 15 billion tonnes in 2050 with the average growth rate of 10 million tonnes per year. The carbon emission peak scheme is compared with the actual situation of energy and carbon emission in the year of 2013 and then policies suggestions are proposed. In order to make the 2030 carbon emission peak realized, systematic measures should be adopted in the period of 2015-2050:public-private partnership should be used and promoted to attract civil capital invested to renewable energy infrastructure for the increase of percentage of renewable energy in total energy consumption;China should enlarge gas imports and strengthen its bargaining power in gas imports through the establishment of gas imports union, encourage private capital to accelerate the construction of gas pipelines networks and gas storage facilities; the institutions of resource taxes, environmental taxes and consumption taxes should be reformed to accelerate the low-carbon transition of energy resource utilization.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150292
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作者单位: 财政部财政科学研究所, 北京 100142, 中国

Recommended Citation:
毕超. 中国能源CO_2排放峰值方案及政策建议[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2015-01-01,25(5):182-190
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