globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5558547
论文题名:
REDD +机制下中国森林碳减排区域影响因素研究
其他题名: Regional Impact Factors of Reduction in Forest Carbon Emissions of China Under REDD +
作者: 盛济川1; 周慧2; 苗壮3
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2015
卷: 25, 期:11, 页码:1824-1831
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 毁林 ; 气候变化 ; 地理加权回归
英文关键词: REDD + ; REDD + ; deforestation ; climate change ; geographical weighted regression
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 森林对CO_2的吸收是碳捕捉和碳储存的一种重要途径,因砍伐和森林退化造成的温室气体排放已成为全球变暖的第二大主因。因此联合国气候变化框架公约在2007年引入了减少砍伐和退化所致排放量"(REDD)机制。作为REDD机制的扩展,"REDD+机制被定义为采取各种政策方法和积极的激励措施,以帮助发展中国家减少砍伐和森林退化,同时还包括森林保护、森林的可持续经营以及增加森林碳汇。本文分析了中国森林碳减排量的潜在影响因素,通过建立全局回归模型识别出关键的影响因素,在此基础上通过检验发现全局回归模型具有空间非稳定性,并建立了地理加权回归模型对关键影响因素的空间异质性进行了分析。研究结果表明:中国森林碳减排量主要受人均地区生产总值、人口自然增长率、人口密度、农业总产值以及林业总产值等五个因素影响。人均地区生产总值对森林碳减排水平提升具有阻碍作用,并且呈现出东北向西南递减的趋势;而人口密度同样具有阻碍作用,并呈现出从西向东递增的趋势;人口自然增长率对于森林碳减排水平提升在东北区域具有促进作用,而在西南区域则具有阻碍作用;农业发展对森林碳减排水平提升具有促进作用,并具有从东向西递减的趋势;林业发展对森林碳减排水平提升具有促进作用,呈现出从西南向东北递减的趋势。最后针对这些空间异质性提出有针对性的政策工具供给,为中国今后的REDD +机制设计提供决策依据。
英文摘要: The absorption of CO_2 by forest land is a critical mean of carbon capture and storage. Greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation have become the second major cause of global warming. Owing to these high forest emissions,in 2007 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) introduced the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). An extension of this mechanism,titled REDD +,includes plans for forest protection,sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon sinks. The potential impact factors of reduction in forest carbon emissions of China are firstly analyzed, and key impact factors are identified by global regression model. Because the model is spatially unstable through statistical test, the geographical weighted regression model is used to analyze spatial heterogeneity of the key factors. The results show that reduction in forest carbon emissions of China is mainly affected by GDP per capita, natural population growth rate, population density, gross output value of agriculture and forestry. The GDP per capita with a negative effect on reduction in forest carbon emissions shows a decreasing trend from the northeast to the southwest,while the population density with a negative effect shows an increasing trend from the west to the east. The natural population growth has a positive effect on reduction in forest carbon emissions in the northeast region, and has a negative effect in the southwest region. Agricultural development can increase reduction in forest carbon emissions, and shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. Forestry development plays an important promotional role in reduction in forest carbon emissions, showing a decreasing trend from the southwest to the northeast. In order to provide the decisionmaking basis for REDD + design of China in the future,some policy tools targeting on the spatial heterogeneity are finally proposed.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150309
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
2.南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国
3.泰州学院经济与管理学院, 泰州, 江苏 225300, 中国

Recommended Citation:
盛济川,周慧,苗壮. REDD +机制下中国森林碳减排区域影响因素研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2015-01-01,25(11):1824-1831
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