globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5566676
论文题名:
气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响分析
其他题名: Analysis on influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density
作者: 刘可群1; 徐兴建2; 陈玉霞3; 李仁东4; 汤阳1; 魏凤华2
刊名: 中华流行病学杂志
ISSN: 0254-6450
出版年: 2015
卷: 36, 期:11, 页码:185-197
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 钉螺密度 ; 活螺框出现率 ; 冬季低温
英文关键词: Oncomelania density ; Frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania ; Low temperature in winter
WOS学科分类: MEDICINE GENERAL INTERNAL
WOS研究方向: General & Internal Medicine
中文摘要: 目的研究自然条件下气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响,为控制血吸虫病及其钉螺扩散提供科学依据。方法收集1990 - 2014年湖北省潜江市春季查螺资料及地面气象观测数据,采用一阶自回归分析方法对实际钉螺密度进行趋势拟合与分解,利用相关分析法对钉螺密度变化率与不同时段、不同气象要素进行相关性分析。结果对钉螺密度影响最大的气象因子是温度,其次为降水;其中1月平均最低气温和冬季平均最低气温分别是钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率影响最大的温度因子;1月平均最低温度升高(或降低)1 ℃,将会导致钉螺密度上升(或下降)5.080%?6.710%;冬季平均最低温度升高(或降低)1 ℃,活螺框变化率上升(或下降)15.521%?15.928%。降水对钉螺密度影响最大的时段是上年11月至当年4月,该时段内降水偏少20%以上,有利于降低钉螺密度。9- 11月日照与钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率存在一定相关性。在相关分析基础上分别建立了钉螺密度变化率、活螺框变化率与气象因子的统计回归模型。结论在12月到来之前清除有螺区杂草有利于降低地表温度和土壤水分含量,能取得一定的灭螺效果。伴随全球气候变化湖北省冬季温度升高趋势明显,可能引发钉螺密度升高。
英文摘要: Objective To understand the influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density in natural condition and provide scientific evidence for the control of the spread of schistosomiasis and Oncomelania. Methods Based on the Oncomelania survey data in spring and ground meteorological observation data of Qianjiang from 1990 to 2014,the first-order autoregressive analysis method was used for trend fitting and disassemble,and the correlation between the change rate of Oncomelania density and various meteorological factors in different periods were analyzed. Results The greatest influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density was temperature, followed by precipitation. The average minimum temperature in January and from December to February had predominant influence on Oncomelania density and frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania (FORLO) respectively. The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature in January by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of Oncomelania density by 5.080%-6.710%; The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature from December to February by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of FORLO by 15.521%-15.928%. The period with the biggest influence of precipitation on Oncomelania density was from November to April, as the rainfall declined >20%,drought might occur, which would cause the reduction of Oncomelania density. Sunshine from September to November had some correlations with the change of Oncomelania density and FORLO. Statistical regression models for the change of Oncomelania density,FORLO and meteorological factors based on correlation analysis were established respectively. Conclusion Weed removal in Oncomelania areas before December is beneficial to reduce the surface temperature and soil moisture content, which would result in Oncomelania density reduction in some extent. It's notable that the winter temperature is in rise in Hubei province along with global climate change,causing the Oncomelania density to increase,to which more attention should be paid.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150377
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.武汉区域气候中心, 430074
2.湖北省疾病预防控制中心
3.武汉科技大学附属医院
4.中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所

Recommended Citation:
刘可群,徐兴建,陈玉霞,等. 气象因素对钉螺密度变化的影响分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志,2015-01-01,36(11):185-197
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