The authors collected 3652 medical records of hospitalized patients with pneumonia and bronchitis from Dongzhimen hospital of Beijing university of Chinese medicine from January 1, 1998 to December 31,2007, and data of 16 meteorological elements from Beijing Observatory (including daily average temperature, daily extreme maximum temperature, daily extreme minimum temperature, daily average relative humidity, daily minimum relative humidity, daily average vapor pressure, daily precipitation, daily average wind speed, comfort level, change trend of temperature, change trend of vapor pressure, change trend of relative humidity, change trend of wind speed, change trend of precipitation, change trend of low cloud cover, change trend of comfort level). The authors used the nonlinear regression method to analyze 46 groups of the earlier stage meteorological factors closely related to respiratory disease.We established 18 respiratory disease forecast equations about main time of six climates to forecast incidence trends of respiratory disease as the more level of accuracy to 75% ~ 100% and the less level of accuracy to 60% ~ 86%. So incidence trends of respiratory disease can be predicted according to the preliminary climate change.