globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5464608
论文题名:
气候暖化对中国洪旱极端事件演变趋势影响研究
其他题名: Influence of climate warming on evolution trend of extreme flood/drought events in China
作者: 祁添垚; 张强; 孙鹏; 肖名忠
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2015
卷: 24, 期:3, 页码:1876-1882
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气象洪旱 ; Copula函数 ; 全球变暖
英文关键词: SPEI ; meteorological flood and drought ; Copula function ; global warming ; SPEI
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 针对气候暖化加剧区域水循环、增加洪旱灾害风险这一科学问题,利用1960-2005年全国588个气象台站资料,对基于标准化降雨蒸散指数的气象洪旱时空演变特征作了深入分析,并通过Copula函数与气温构建了二维联合分布函数,揭示了气温上升对中国气象洪旱极端事件发生的可能影响。研究发现,在不同的气温上升情景下,不同重现期的极端气象洪旱事件有着不同的响应。希望该研究对气候暖化背景下的中国防洪抗旱减灾及流域水资源管理能作出积极贡献。
英文摘要: Climate warming has a potential to aggravate regional hydrologic cycle and enhance the risk of floods and droughts. By use of the data of 588 meteorological observatories in China from 1960 to 2005,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index-based meteorological flood and drought spatiotemporal evolution characteristics was analyzed, and through Copula function and air temperature,a two-dimensional joint distribution was extablished. The possible effect of temperature rise on occurrence of flood and drought extreme events in China was revealed. The results indicate that under different air temperature rise scenarios,the extreme events of meteorological droughts and floods with different return periods have different responses. It is hoped that the research may make an active contribution to flood and drought prerention and reduction,and water resources management of river basins.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150406
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作者单位: 中山大学水资源与环境系, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国

Recommended Citation:
祁添垚,张强,孙鹏,等. 气候暖化对中国洪旱极端事件演变趋势影响研究[J]. 自然灾害学报,2015-01-01,24(3):1876-1882
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