利用长江中下游地区1961 -2011年气象数据和1981 -2011年一季稻生育期资料,采用线性回归方法分析了一季稻高温热害危险性的时空分布及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明: ( 1) 1961 -1993年7,8月份平均气温显著下降( P < 0. 05) ,近50年来5,9,10月的平均气温极显著增高( P < 0. 01) ; ( 2)湖北省东部、安徽省西南部是一季稻高温热害危险性的高值区,江苏省、浙江省和湖北省西北部是其低值区。20世纪60年代和21世纪初热害发生最为频繁,危险性相应最大; ( 3)一季稻高温热害危险性与7 -8月最高气温和平均气温存在极显著的正相关关系( P < 0. 01) ,危险性随着最高气温和平均气温的升高呈现出先慢后快的增大,分别以31℃和26. 5℃为临界变化温度。因此,不同区域应根据各自危险性特征安排适宜的播种期,并选用合适的品种类型。
英文摘要:
Based on the breeding period observation data of single-cropping rice from agricultural meteorological station records during 1981 -2011 and daily meteorological data during 1961 -2011,hazard spatiotemporal distribution of heat injury of single-cropping rice and its responses to climate change was analyzed using linear regression method. Results showed that: ( 1) Average temperature in July and August declined significantly ( P < 0. 05) during 1961 -1993,while average temperature in May,September and October increased significantly ( P < 0. 01) during the last 50 years; ( 2) High value area of hazard of single-cropping rice mainly concentrated in the east of Hubei Province and the west of Anhui Province,and the low value area of the hazard gradually developed to Jiangsu, Zhejiang Province and northwest of Hubei province. Heat injury occurs the most frequently in the 1960's and early 21st century,with the value of hazard is highest; ( 3) Hazard of heat injury of single-cropping rice is positively correlated with the maximum and the average temperature in July and August( P < 0. 01) ,with the increase of the maximum and the average temperature,the hazard of the heat injury first increase slowly and then quickly, whose critical temperature is 31℃ and 26. 5℃,respectively. Therefore,suitable seeding time and variety types should be selected according to local hazard features.