Potential agricultural productivity has an important and far- reaching impact on regional agricultural development and agriculture industrialization investment and distribution. However, previous researches paid more attention to exploring the potential agricultural productivity in some regions of China, but the temporal and spatial variation of regional potential agricultural productivity in China have yet to receive the attention they deserve. Furthermore, more importantly, the study regarding the impact of climate change on the potential agricultural productivity and the spatial pattern of Chinese agricultural development are relatively small in China. Therefore, in allusion to the problems mentioned above, based on the GIS method, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of regional potential agricultural productivity of China since 1980s, and discusses the impact of climate change on potential agricultural productivity and food production in China between 2041 and2060. Results mainly show that the regional potential agricultural productivity in southeastern China is higher than that of other parts of China between 1961 and 2012, and the lowest potential agricultural productivity is found in northwestern China. However, the averaged potential agricultural productivity is less than 7500 kg/hm~2 in west regions of the HU-line in China. At the same time, spatial distribution of the averaged potential agricultural productivity in China between 1961 and 2012 clearly presents the characteristics of latitude zonality. In addition, by comparing two periods of 1961-1980 and 1981-2012, the decline of the potential agricultural productivity is mainly found in areas east of the HU-line, and the largest declines are found in Sichuan Basin and in the middle of North China Plain, falling by more than 4%. Notably, however, the biggest contributing factor leading to reduce of potential agricultural productivity in these regions is the availability coefficient of water. Moreover, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of North China Plain are characterized by increasing potential agricultural productivity. Finally, the simulated results suggest that the decline in the potential agricultural productivity of China between 2041 and 2060 can be mainly found in the area south of the Yangtze River and in the middle of Qinghai under the context of global climate change, where Sichuan Basin, southern and central Hubei would be the most declined regions in potential agricultural productivity, which means that future climate change may have a significant negative effect on food production in these regions.