globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5647748
论文题名:
基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国典型区域干湿变化分析
其他题名: Analysis of dry and wet variations in typical regions of China based on a CMIP5 global climate model
作者: 姜姗姗1; 占车生2; 李淼3; 王飞宇2; 梁伟4
刊名: 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0476-0301
出版年: 2016
卷: 52, 期:1, 页码:190-199
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 中国典型区域 ; 气候变化 ; 湿润指数 ; 未来气候情景
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; the typical regional in China ; climate change ; humid index ; future climate scenarios ; CMIP5
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 基于CMIP5多全球气候模式数值模拟结果,包括空间分辨率0.5°的逐月历史气候数据和RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来气候变化预估数据,利用潜在蒸散发和降水量构建能够表征地表干湿状况的湿润指数,对中国东部季风区7个典型区1901-2100年干湿变化趋势进行了模拟和分析.结果表明:各分区在1901-2005年湿润指数均呈现下降趋势,其中珠江、长江、淮河流域变化较为平缓,黄河、海河流域和东北地区波动较大.可见在过去的100多年中,东部季风区整体上呈现不同程度的干旱化.在2006-2100年不同温室气体排放情景下,各分区的湿润指数呈现不同程度的波动,除了黄河上游地区湿润指数呈现增长趋势外,其他区域没有明显的变湿趋势.
英文摘要: Global climate model data, including historical climate simulation data and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future estimation data from The Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to analyze the dry/wet variations of seven typical areas of the East Monsoon Area of China from 1901-2100 on a humid index detecting the dry/wet condition at the surface. It was found that from 1901-2005, the humid index in each partition gradually decreased. The humid index decreased slowly in the Pearl River, Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and downstream of the Yellow River. The humid index was volatile in the Yellow River, Haihe River and the northeastern region. Therefore in the past 100 years, the East Monsoon Area of China was in drought condition. The model predicts that from 2006-2100, under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission, the humid index in all partition will be volatile, while upstream of the Yellow River the humid index will gradually increase from 2006 to 2100, changes in the remaining regions will not be significant.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150459
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875, 中国
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国
3.水利部发展研究中心, 北京 100038, 中国
4.陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国

Recommended Citation:
姜姗姗,占车生,李淼,等. 基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国典型区域干湿变化分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版,2016-01-01,52(1):190-199
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