globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5768224
论文题名:
基于发达国家比较的中国能源消费峰值预测
其他题名: Peak Forecast of Chinese Energy Consumption Based on Developed Countries'S Trends
作者: 马丽; 刘立涛
刊名: 地理科学
ISSN: 1000-0690
出版年: 2016
卷: 36, 期:7, 页码:197-203
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 能源消费 ; 峰值背景 ; 峰值预测 ; 中国
英文关键词: energy consumption ; peak condition ; peak forecast ; China
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 通过比较英美等发达国家能源消费变化趋势,研究其出现峰值的社会经济条件,并采用长期能源替代规划系统模型(LEAP)模型对中国未来能源消费趋势及其峰值进行预测。研究发现,英美德法日加等国家的能源峰值皆是在其工业化和城市化进程基本完成、国民经济增速放缓、人均居民收入达到较高水平、整体社会经济进入平稳状态后才出现。根据中国社会经济发展趋势,随着产业结构转型和发展方式调整,中国工业能源消费峰值可能在2020~2030年期间实现,但生活和交通能源消费还将随着居民生活水平的提高而不断增长。预计中国能源峰值将在2040年左右出现,届时能源消费量将达到58*10~8t标准煤。为了保障如此巨大的能源需求,中国将面临较大的生态安全和国家安全风险。为此,中国必须转变传统经济发展观念,在保证国家稳定的前提下,适度降低经济增速,并尽快促进产业结构转型,提高能源开发和利用效率,同时要积极开展国际合作,保障国际油气进口的安全性。
英文摘要: Since 2000, the sustained and rapid growth of Chinese economy and relative rough growth model has lead into the huge increase of energy consumption. China has become the world's largest energy consumer. Given the huge scale of energy consumption and impact on global climate change, the peak value and its coming time become the important issues for Chinese sustainable development. Through the comparison of energy consumption trend of some developed countries, the social and economic conditions of the peak value were studied. Then, this article estimated the trend of China's future energy consumption with LEAP model taking the social and economic elements concerned, including growth rate, industrial structure, urbanization rate, population and vehicle-motors. It found that most developed countries, such as Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kindom and United States, have really get their energy consumption peak value in the beginning of 21~(st), when they had really finished the industrialization and urbanization process, the growth rate of GDP slowed down substantially, size of energy and heavy chemical industry stabilized or decreased, and GDP per capita reached to certain level. Given Chinese industrilizaton and urbanization continued, Chinese energy consumption will continue to increase in a long period. This paper forecast that he peak value of industrial energy consumption will be achieved during 2020-2030 with the transformation of industrial structure and capacity saturation of energy-intensive industries,while the residential and transport energy consumption will continue to grow with the improvement of living standard. Only under the strict socio-economic conditions, such as implementing economic development mode transformation, promoting industrial structure conversion and upgrading, maintaining economic growth in moderate speed(5%-6%), pushing forward urbanization steadily(urbanization rate is 70% in 2035 and 75% in 2050), controling the number of motor vehiclesstrictly and promoting new energy vehicleactively, the scale of China's energy consumption will get to its peak value in 2040 with the size of 5.8 billion tce. Also, such huge energy demands will make China face with great risks and costs in ecological, economic and national security. Therefore, this paper argues that the current academic and political views on Chinese energy consumption turning point of Chinese is not conducive to the realization of China's economic and social development and long-term goals due to its continued industrialization and urbanization process. On the other hand, China must change its traditional economic growth mode and accelerate industrial restructuring and improve energy exploitation and utilization efficiency. Also, it should carry out international cooperation actively and protect the safety of international oil and gas imports.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150593
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国

Recommended Citation:
马丽,刘立涛. 基于发达国家比较的中国能源消费峰值预测[J]. 地理科学,2016-01-01,36(7):197-203
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