globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5661797
论文题名:
日食、太阳黑子与地球自转对Ei Nino(La Nina)影响与预测
其他题名: Impaction and prediction of Ei Nino(La Nina) events by eclipse,sunspot and earth rotate
作者: 贺祥1; 林振山2
刊名: 地球物理学进展
ISSN: 1004-2903
出版年: 2016
卷: 31, 期:1, 页码:2027-2034
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 日食 ; 地球自转 ; 太阳黑子 ; 动力学预测模型
英文关键词: Ei Nino ; La Nina ; EMD ; eclipse ; sunspot ; earth rotate ; Ei Nino ; La Nina ; EMD ; dynamic mechanics prediction model
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: Ei Nino(La Nina)对全球气候变化产生显著影响并造成严重自然灾害,其形成与发生受多因素复杂影响.对其影响因素与事件发生预测的研究,有助于对其成因机制加深理解,减弱其造成的灾害影响.本文运用经验模态分解法(EMD)与动力力学预测模型等数学方法,对近60年地球自转、日食、太阳黑子等因素与Ei Nino(La Nina)事件相关性进行多尺度分析,探讨日食对Ei Nino(La Nina)热动力诱因,构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nino(La Nina)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E_1 - E_2),并对未来10年Ei Nino(La Nina)事件进行预测.研究结果表明:日食、太阳黑子、地球自转等现象与Ei Nino、La Nina事件具有密切相关性,是其发生重要影响因素.日食发生对Ei Nino(La Nina)事件具有热动力诱因,太阳黑子峰值年与Ei Nino事件发生有较好关联性,地球自转速率增加,诱发或增强La Nina事件,地球自转速率降低时,诱发或增强Ei Nino事件.通过构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nino(La Nina)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E_1 - E_2)进行Ei Nino(La Nina)事件的资料验证与预测,准确率达86.05%,得到预测结论: 2016、 2018、2019、2020、2023年发生Ei Nino事件,2017、2021、2024年发生La Nina事件.
英文摘要: The Ei Nino (La Nina) events can make significant effect on the global climate change and cause serious natural disaster.Its formation are impacted by many complicate factors.There are help to understand its formation mechanism and reduce its disaster harm by study these impact factors of Ei Nino(La Nina) events.We take the multi-time scales analyze for the earth rotate,sunspot,eclipse and Ei Nino (La Nina) events by the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and the dynamic mechanics prediction model.We are analyze the thermal dynamic inducement between the Ei Nino (La Nina) events and the eclipse.We construct the correlation coefficient and the prediction theorem(E_1 - E_2) between the earth rotate,sunspot,eclipse and Ei Nino (La Nina) events to predict the Ei Nino (La Nina) events happen time in future ten years.The research results show that: there are closely relative between the eclipse,the sunspot,the earth rotate and the Ei Nino (La Nina) events.There are thermal power causes between the solar eclipse occurs and Ei Nino (La Nina) events.The sunspots high peak value year have better correlation with the Ei Nino event.As the earth rotate rate increase,it is to induce or enhance the La Nina event.As the earth rotate rate decrease,it is to induce or enhance the Ei Nino event.We construct the correlation coefficient and the predictive theorem (E_1 - E_2) for them,and through data to validation and prediction.The results prove that the prediction accuracy rate is 86.05%.We predict that the Ei Nino will happen in 2016a,2018a,2019a,2020a and 2023a and the La Nina will happen in 2017a,2021a,2024a.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150695
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国
2.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国

Recommended Citation:
贺祥,林振山. 日食、太阳黑子与地球自转对Ei Nino(La Nina)影响与预测[J]. 地球物理学进展,2016-01-01,31(1):2027-2034
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