globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5630727
论文题名:
近52 a区域气候变化对濒危物种新疆北鲵潜在影响分析
其他题名: Potential impact of regional climate change on endangered species Ranodon sibiricus in China over the past 52 years
作者: 袁亮1; 吴烨2; 叶小芳1; 古丽格娜·海力力3; 冯俊4; 王秀玲1
刊名: 干旱区地理
ISSN: 1000-6060
出版年: 2016
卷: 39, 期:1, 页码:2078-2088
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 新疆北鲵 ; 自然保护区 ; 气候变化 ; 冰川 ; 种群
英文关键词: Ranodon scibiricus ; nature reserve ; climate change ; glacier ; population
WOS学科分类: ZOOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Zoology
中文摘要: 基于新疆北鲵自然保护区周边7个气象站1963-2014年气温和降水数据,我们采用线性回归、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变和Morlet小波分析对该区域气候变化特征进行分析,从气候学角度探讨区域气候变化对新疆北鲵生存环境及种群变化产生的潜在影响。结果表明:近52a,该区域平均升温0.37℃·(10a)~(-1)(r=0.632,P<0.001),高于世界和我国同期升温水平,显著增温发生自1998年,四季升温均显著,其中冬季升幅最大为0.47 ℃·(10 a)~(-1)(r=0.338,P=0.014);区域降水平均增加13.32mm·(10a)~(-1)(r=0.349,P= 0.011),其中夏季和冬季降水贡献最大,分别为4.19mm·(10 a)~(-1)(r=0.281,P=0.043)和4.43 mm·(10a)~(-1)(r=0.443,P=0.001),自2002年起降水量显著增加(仅2008年不显著);区域气温具有2 a、7~8 a和15~ 16 a的弱变化周期,降水具有5 a和13~14 a的震荡周期。该区域近52 a气候与新疆整体气候变化趋势一致,偏暖湿化,但降水增加趋势弱于升温趋势。尤其是近15 a的持续增温加速了该区域冰川消融,降水量虽有增长,但增长趋势和幅度较弱,不足以促进冰川物质积累,冰川消融量大于积累量,冰川平衡线抬升,高海拔区地下水位下降,山间涌泉及溪流减少,北鲵赖以生存的湿地面积不断萎缩,成为其野外种群数量持续减少的主要原因。
英文摘要: Wild population of Ranodon sibiricus continued to decline in China over the last decade,mainly because of dwindling wetlands for their survival, and this situation may be closely related to regional climatic change. For cognizing the potential climate-change effects on Ranodon sibiricus,the paper obtained the temperature and precipitation monthly data from 7 meteorological stations around the Xinjiang salamander nature reserve from 1963 to 2014,and utilized linear regression equation, accumulated anomaly method, Morlet wavelet function and non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) test to analyze climatic characteristics of this large-scale area. The results suggest that annual mean temperature and precipitation of this region are in an upward trend over the past fifty years which consistent with the overall climatic changes of Xinjiang province. Temperature has a upward trend with the rate of 0.37 ℃ · (10 a)~(-1)(r= 0.632,P <0.001), which is higher than the conditions of the world and China in the same period. The significance in temperature increase since 1998, with warming of the four seasons as well, of which the winter temperature increase rate was the largest, which was as high as 0.47 ℃ · (10 a)~(-1) (r=0.338,P=0.014). The trend of precipitation went up at the rate of 13.32 mm· (10 a)~(-1) (r=0.349,P=0.011),increased significantly since 2002 (except 2008). Summer and winter precipitation made a major contribution, which growth tendency is 4.19 mm · (10 a)~(-1) (r=0.281,P=0.043) and 4.43mm·(10 a)~(-1) (r=0.443,P=0.001),respectively. Morlet wavelet analysis showed that regional temperature charactered 2,7-8 and 15-16 years of weak changing period, and regional precipitation had 5 and 13-14 years cycle, and the cyclical swing was obvious from 1980s to 1990s,but became unapparent in recent 15 years. Nearly a decade,increases of summer precipitation which was mainly consisted with liquid precipitation rather than solid precipitation, leading to reduced glacial accumulation, coupled with year-round warming effect, accelerated the speed of the Dzungarian Alatau Mountain high altitude glaciers liquefaction. With rapidly uplifting of glacier equilibrium line altitude, lowering of groundwater level in high altitude area, the reduced mountain springs led to the wetland is shrinking and wild Ranodon sibiricus population continue to decline.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150798
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中亚区域跨境有害生物联合控制国际研究中心,新疆师范大学生命科学学院, 新疆特殊环境物种保护与调控生物学实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830054, 中国
2.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
3.新疆气象信息中心, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国
4.上海自然博物馆(上海科技馆分馆), 上海 200041, 中国

Recommended Citation:
袁亮,吴烨,叶小芳,等. 近52 a区域气候变化对濒危物种新疆北鲵潜在影响分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2016-01-01,39(1):2078-2088
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