globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5871601
论文题名:
川中丘陵区近60 a主要气象因子变化趋势研究
其他题名: Study on Trends of the Main Meteorological Factors in Hill Area of Central Sichuan over the Past 60 Years
作者: 李华丽1; 崔宁博2; 李晨1; 胡笑涛3; 龚道枝4
刊名: 灌溉排水学报
ISSN: 1672-3317
出版年: 2016
卷: 35, 期:12, 页码:2146-2152
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 川中丘陵区 ; 气象因子 ; 变化趋势 ; Mann-Kendall检验 ; Morlet小波分析 ; 相关性分析
英文关键词: hill Area of central Sichuan ; climate data ; trend ; Mann-Kendall test ; Morlet wavelet analysis ; correlation analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES ; AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Agriculture
中文摘要: 为深入了解川中丘陵区近60 a气候变化规律,基于川中丘陵区13个站点19542013年逐日气象资料,使用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析和相关性分析,定量研究了气象因子的变化趋势及变化周期。结果表明,近60 a来川中丘陵区辐射、降水、风速及相对湿度均呈整体下降趋势(降幅分别为0.242 3 MJ/(m~2· d· 10 a)、 0.050 0 mm/10 a、0.025 7 m/(s· 10 a)和0.137 2%/10 a),温度呈上升趋势(增幅为0.031 6 ℃/10 a);气温、辐射、降水、风速及相对湿度等气象因子60 a来均呈现增大-减小的周期性变化规律,变化主周期分别为6、12、13、21、24 a,且其局部突变分别发生在1964年和1996年、1986年、19571985年、19581963年和2008年;各气象因子相关性较为明显且交互影响关系复杂,其中风速与辐射显著正相关(P<0.05),与湿度极显著负相关(P<0.01),而辐射与气温极显著正相关(P<0.01),与湿度显著负相关(P<0.05)。
英文摘要: To obtain the law of climate change in Hill Area of Central Sichuan in nearly 60 years, Mann-Kendall test and Mann Kendall rank correlation, Morlet wavelet method and Correlation analysis were used to study the trends and change cycles of temperature, radiation, wind speed, precipitation and relative humidity based on daily meteorological data during 19542013 of 13 meteorological stations. Results showed that other meteorological factors had decreasing trends with rates of 0.243 4 MJ/(m~2·d · 10 a), 0.050 0 mm/10a, 0.025 7 m/(s · 10 a) and 0.137 2%/10 a, except the temperature had an increasing trend with a rate of 0.031 6 ℃/10 a. The annual climatic data of Hill Area of Central Sichuan existed an "increase- decrease" alternating change with the first periods of 6, 12, 13, 21 and 24 years, and the meteorological factors mutated respectively in 1964 and 1996, 1986, 1957 to 1985, 1958 to 1963, 2008. Correlation analysis showed that the climatic data of Hill Area of Central Sichuan existed significant correlation. The correlation between wind speed and radiation passed through the 0.05 significance test, and the correlation between wind speed and humidity passed through the 0.01 significance test; The correlation between radiation and humidity passed through the 0.05 significance test, and the correlation between radiation and temperature passed through the 0.01 significance test. The study of interrelation between meteorological elements made it possible to forecast the changes happening in future, which could be a guidance for agricultural production in Hill Area of Central Sichuan to overcame the climate change.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/150909
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.四川大学,水利水电学院, 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国
2.四川大学,水利水电学院, 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室
3.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国
4.西北农林科技大学, 旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国
5.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
李华丽,崔宁博,李晨,等. 川中丘陵区近60 a主要气象因子变化趋势研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2016-01-01,35(12):2146-2152
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