Low-carbon eco-city has become the inevitable trend of future urban development and transformation under the background of promoting the development of ecological civilization,addressing climate change and solving environmental problems. To guide the healthy and orderly urban development,the model is proposed to assess the effects of low-carbon eco-city development. Different with traditional studies,the conceptual framework emphasizes the current conditions and future trends based onPressure-State-Responsecomprehensive assessment model,system dynamics simulation model and regulation potentiality analysis,considering the local natural resource security,quantitative expression the mutually dependent and interacting relationship between social activities,low-carbon economy and ecological environment as well as confirming the potential and direction of indicator regulation. The proposed assessment model was then applied to Shenzhen,and the results indicate that the assessment index for Shenzhen increased from level IV at 2009 to level III at 2013,and would arrive at 61.7 (level II) at 2020 with the same control levels and developing rate. The growth rate of the assessment index became slower and would become evensaturatedstate. Therefore,it is still necessary to optimize the direction and pattern of socioeconomic development during low-carbon eco-city construction,and further implement and strengthen the measures in industrial restructuring andMarine citybuilding in Shenzhen.