globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5678618
论文题名:
近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识
其他题名: Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China
作者: 丁一汇1; 王会军2
刊名: 科学通报
ISSN: 0023-074X
出版年: 2016
卷: 61, 期:10, 页码:2229-2238
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 亚洲季风 ; 气候变化归因 ; 全球气候变暖趋缓 ; 气候变化预估
英文关键词: climate change ; Asian monsoon ; attribution of climate change ; global warming hiatus ; projection of climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 全球和中国的气候变化问题日益受到各国政府、科技界和公众的关注.其中科学问题作为气候变化影响和对策的科学基础与支撑,得到了广泛而深入的研究,无论在国际上还是在中国都取得了重大进展.本文从全球的视野对与中国气候变化有关的6个方面的重要科学进展和新认知作了概述.它们包括: (1)近百年中国区域地表气温和大气平均气温的变化特征; (2)中国地区的水循环与区域降水变化; (3)亚洲季风的长期变化与原因; (4)海洋在近百年中国气候变化中的作用; (5)中国气候变化的原因; (6)全球与中国气候变化的预估和检验.最后,本文对未来中国气候变化研究需要加强的重点科学问题也提出了研究建议.
英文摘要: The issue of the global climate change as well as the climate change in China is of increasingly great concern for various governments, scientific and technological communities and public. Among them, the climate change evidence, mechanism and attribution, climate change impact, as well as climate change prediction and projection have been studied intensively in China. The present paper will concisely review and assess contributions and achievement made by Chinese scientists from the international perspective, which include the following six aspects: (1) the characters tics of regional surface air temperature and tropospheric temperature in China have shown significant increasing trends. The warming rate of the surface temperature is about 1.2℃ per hundred year with its uncertainty ranging of 0.9-1.52℃. (2) The researches of water cycle have indicated that regional precipitation change has had no obvious trend at a hundred-year scale. However, the precipitation pattern has changed since 1970s with more precipitation in western China, whereas in eastern China the pattern of drought in North and flood in South has been observed. The annual surface humidity has taken on increasing trend. Both the small pan evaporation and potential evaporation have appeared decreasing trends. The annual runoff of most rivers in eastern China has shown decreasing trends, while that in western China has shown increasing trends. (3) It is indicated that the anthropogenic forcing has produced significant effect on the long-term variation of the East Asian monsoon. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon will become stronger and the monsoonal rain belt will migrate northward. (4) The sea level has been affected by the global warming. Since 1980, the rising rate of sea level in China is about 2.9 mm/a, being higher than that of the global mean. (5) The attribution of the climate change has suggested that the surface temperature variation for the last 100 years is the result of the superimposition between the global warming and the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or other oceanic phenomena. The fast warming rate and the intensity as well as the frequency of some extreme events (such as heat waves) in china are consistent with the global counterparts, mainly influenced by the increase of the green-house gases. (6) The model projections have stated that by the end of 21st century, the global surface temperature will possibly increase by 1.0-3.7℃. The increasing amplitude of surface temperature in China will be 1.3-5.0℃. The precipitation will increase by 5%-14% and the extreme events will more frequently occur. Finally, the suggestion of scientific problems concerning the climate change in China that need to be furthter studied in the future is put forward: (1) global and regional observation analysis, especially the modes of the sea and the atmospheric circulation as well as their multi-scale variability; (2) interaction between cloud and climate, climate sensitivity and feedback; (3) evolution of paleoclimate and its comparison with the modern climate change as well as its attribution; (4) global and regional water cycle, carbon and nitrogen cycle and their impacts; (5) polar sea ice, ice cover and cryosphere as well as sea level rise; (6) global monsoon system and drought flood disaster; (7) the threshold of the extreme events and climate abrupt change; (8) improving weather-climate integration model and multi-role earth system model.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151053
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作者单位: 1.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
2.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029, 中国

Recommended Citation:
丁一汇,王会军. 近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J]. 科学通报,2016-01-01,61(10):2229-2238
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