Henan province is a major production area of winter wheat. To quantitatively evaluate the variation characteristics of wheat production potential and yield-increasing potential in Henan province under climate change,DSSAT model was employed to estimate light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) and climatic potential productivity (CPP) of wheat based on meteorological data and wheat growth data at 15 sites of Henen province during 1963-2012. The distribution of LTPP and CPP then was analyzed. The result showed that LTPP of wheat was between 8 350 and 9 996 kg·hm~(-2),the distribution of which was lower in the southern and western regions but higher in the northern and eastern regions. CPP of wheat was between 2 590 and 7 943 kg·hm~(-2),the distribution of which was lower in the northern regions but higher in the southern regions. LTPP in most regions were 9 173 kg·hm~(-2) to 9 446 kg·hm~(-2),taking up nearly 43.5% of the Henan wheat-growing areas. Regions with higher than 9 447 kg·hm~(-2) of LTPP were mostly in the north of Henan (e.g. the northwest of Anyang and Xinxiang),and in the center of Henan (e.g. Xuchang and Xihua),which account for 33.6% of Henan wheat-growing areas. CPP in most regions were 4 375 kg·hm~(-2) to 7 050 kg·hm~(-2),accounting for nearly 59.5% of the Henan wheat-growing areas. Moisture requirement rate of 15 sites were 28% to 91%,which of most regions in Henan were lower than 60%. The yield increasing potential by irrigation (YIPI) were 723 kg·hm~(-2) to 6 573 kg·hm~(-2). YIPI in the north of Sanmenxia,Zhengzhou,Kaifeng and Shangqiu were higher than 4 623 kg·hm~(-2),taking up 49.4% of Henan wheat-growing areas. YIPI in Xinyang and the north of Zhumadian were lower than 2 673 kg·hm~(-2),taking up 17.5% of Henan wheat-growing areas.