globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5848346
论文题名:
非稳态条件下的中长期径流耦合预报方法
其他题名: Coupled model for long-term runoff prediction considering non-stationarity
作者: 赵建世; 王君; 赵铜铁钢
刊名: 南水北调与水利科技
ISSN: 1672-1683
出版年: 2016
卷: 14, 期:5, 页码:227-231
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 非稳态 ; 中长期径流预报 ; 水文-气象遥相关 ; 时间序列模型 ; 疏勒河
英文关键词: non-stationarity ; long-term runoff prediction ; hydro-climatic teleconnection ; runoff auto-correlation ; Shule river
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 气候变化会导致水文序列的非稳态性,从而给水文预报带来新的挑战。以疏勒河上游为例,提出了一种适于非稳态条件下的新的中长期径流预报方法。根据疏勒河径流的补给来源及其受气候变化的影响,按照时间序列模型的思路,依次提取趋势项和周期项,对剩余的随机项采用基于水文-气象遥相关模型,构建了时间序列与水文-气象遥相关的耦合模型。对比分析时间序列法、水文-气象遥相关法和耦合预报法对昌马堡站径流预报的结果,发现耦合预报方法不仅精度最高、模型可信度最高,而且可以描述非稳态的趋势性变化。
英文摘要: Climate change can cause non-stationarity in hydrological series,bringing more challenges to hydrological prediction. Taking Shule rive as a case,this paper explores a new long-term runoff prediction model under non-stationarity.Based on runoff recharge sources and climate change in upper reaches of the river,this paper first analyzes the trend term and periodic term of the runoff series,and then builds a multiple regression model based on hydro-climatic teleconnection analysis to predict the stochastic term.The issued model couples auto-correlation model and hydro-climatic teleconnection model by merging the three terms together,and yields ultimate prediction runoff values.Prediction results of the teleconnection based model,the time series model,and the coupling model,are compared.It is shown that the coupling model has the highest precision and provides the most efficient results.Meanwhile,it can capture the nonstationary trend of streamflow.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151120
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 清华大学水利水电工程系, 北京 100084, 中国

Recommended Citation:
赵建世,王君,赵铜铁钢. 非稳态条件下的中长期径流耦合预报方法[J]. 南水北调与水利科技,2016-01-01,14(5):227-231
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