globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5702647
论文题名:
利用温度资料和广义回归神经网络模拟参考作物蒸散量
其他题名: Modeling reference evapotranspiration by generalized regression neural network combined with temperature data
作者: 冯禹1; 崔宁博2; 龚道枝1; 胡笑涛3; 张宽地3
刊名: 农业工程学报
ISSN: 1002-6819
出版年: 2016
卷: 32, 期:10, 页码:228-234
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 温度 ; 模型 ; 农业 ; 参考作物蒸散量,温度资料,Penman-Monteith模型,广义回归神经网络,模型适用性
英文关键词: temperature ; models ; agriculture ; reference evapotranspiration ; temperature data ; Penman-Monteith model ; generalized regression neural network ; performance of model
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 参考作物蒸散量(reference evapotranspiration, ET_0)精确模拟对水资源高效利用和灌溉制度制定具有重要意义,该文以四川盆地19个气象站点1961-1990年逐日最高、最低温度和大气顶层辐射作为输入参数,FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)模型计算的ET_0为标准值,建立基于广义回归神经网络(generalized regression neural network, GRNN)的ET_0模拟模型,基于1991-2014年资料进行模型验证,将GRNN模型同Hargreaves(HS1)和改进Hargreaves(HS2)等简化模型的模拟结果进行比较,分析只有温度资料情况下不同模型模拟ET_0误差的时空变异性。结果表明: GRNN、 HS1和HS2模型均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)分别为0.41、1.16和0.70 mm/d,模型效率系数(E_(ns))分别为0.88、0.13和0.67。3种模型RMSE在时空上均呈现HS1>HS2>GRNN、E_(ns)均呈现GRNN>HS2>HS1趋势;与PM模型模拟结果相比,GRNN、HS1和HS2模型模拟结果分别偏大0.8%、45.1%和17.3%。在时空尺度上的误差分析均表明利用温度资料建立的GRNN模型能够较为准确地模拟四川盆地ET_0,因此可以作为资料缺失情况下ET_0模拟的推荐模型。该研究可为四川盆地作物需水精确预测提供科学依据。
英文摘要: As the only connecting parameter between energy balance and water balance, evapotranspiration (ET) is the most excellent indicator for the activity of climate change and water cycle, and therefore, accurate estimation of ET is of importance for hydrologic, climatic and agricultural studies. ET is commonly computed by reference evapotranspiration (ET_0), and this paper investigated the performance of generalized regression neural network(GRNN) algorithm in modeling FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM) ET_0 only with the temperature data in 19 meteorological stations located at the western, middle, and eastern part of Sichuan basin, southwest China. Data of meteorological variables containing maximum air temperature (T_(max)), minimum air temperature(T_(min)) for the period of 1961-1990 were used as input variables to train the GRNN model, and data for the period of 1991-2014 were used to validate the GRNN model. The performance of GRNN model was compared with the empirical temperature-based Hargreaves(HS1) and calibrated Hargreaves(HS2) models considering the PM ET_0 as the benchmarks. The evaluation criteria of root mean squared error(RMSE) and model efficiency (E_(ns)) were used for the comparison. The statistical results indicated that the RMSE values of the GRNN, HS1 and HS2 models were 0.41, 1.16 and 0.70 mm/d, respectively, and the E_(ns) values of the GRNN, HS1 and HS2 models were 0.88, 0.13 and 0.67, respectively, which manifested the performance of the GRNN model was encouraging. The RMSE of the HS1 model was the biggest every year at temporal scale in all 3 sub-zones of Sichuan basin, followed by the HS2 model, and the RMSE of the GRNN model was the smallest; the E_(ns) of the GRNN model was bigger than HS1 and HS2 model every year at temporal scale in all 3 sub-zones. The RMSE of the HS1 model was the biggest in every meteorological station of Sichuan basin at spatial scale, followed by the HS2 model, and the RMSE of the GRNN model was the smallest; the E_(ns) of the GRNN model was bigger than HS1 and HS2 model in every meteorological station at spatial scale. Based on the RMSE and E_(ns), the errors of GRNN, HS1 and HS2 models showed an increasing tendency, which indicated the error of all the 3 models would become bigger in the future. The ranges of the ET_0 values computed by the PM, GRNN, HS1 and HS2 model were 695~837, 709~820, 1 029~1 178 and 818~975 mm, all of which showed an increase tendency with a rate of 2.7, 2.0, 2.2 and 2.4 mm/a respectively in recent 24 years. Compared with the PM model, GRNN, HS1 and HS2 overestimated the ET_0 value by 0.8%, 45.1% and 17.3%, respectively. The analysis of the performance of GRNN, HS1 and HS2 models at temporal and spatial scale confirmed the good ability of the GRNN model in estimating ET_0 when the data for PM model were not fully available, and thus the GRNN model should be adopted to compute ET_0. This paper can provide the reference for estimating the crop water requirement in Sichuan basin when only temperature data are accessible.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151135
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室/农业部旱作节水农业重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
2.四川大学水利水电学院, 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室
3.南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610065, 中国
4.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 杨凌, 712100

Recommended Citation:
冯禹,崔宁博,龚道枝,等. 利用温度资料和广义回归神经网络模拟参考作物蒸散量[J]. 农业工程学报,2016-01-01,32(10):228-234
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