globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5624986
论文题名:
基于GEV分布的天山开都河洪水频率特征分析
其他题名: Flood Frequency Analysis for Kaidu Watershed in Tianshan Mountains
作者: 黄粤1; 陈曦1; 刘铁1; 马勇刚2
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2016
卷: 12, 期:1, 页码:2316-2325
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 洪水 ; GEV分布 ; 内陆河
英文关键词: climate change ; extreme flood ; GEV distribution ; inland river
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 本文选择天山开都河流域为研究区,基于巴音布鲁克和大山口2个水文站1957-2011年的日径流量观测资料,采用年最大值法(AM)抽取径流序列样本,用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt检验分析年最大日流量、春季最大日流量和夏季最大日流量序列的变化规律;并运用广义极值分布(GEV)对标准化的最大日流量序列进行拟合,分析洪水频率的变化特征。结果表明:提取的6个最大日流量序列均不存在明显的趋势性,且突变点不显著;其中巴音布鲁克站年最大日流量、春季最大日流量和大山口站年最大日流量序列近似服从Frechet分布,而大山口站春季最大日流量、夏季最大日流量和巴音布鲁克站夏季最大日流量序列则服从Gumbel分布。1980年代以来,开都河流域洪水的发生频次明显增加;巴音布鲁克站夏季洪水次数持续增加,大山口站春季和夏季洪水次数均呈增加趋势,且春季洪水出现时间均有所提前。春季显著升温与冬季降水增加,是春季融雪性洪水出现时间和水量变化的主要原因;而夏季降雨量和降雨频率显著增加,是夏季洪水形成与频率变化的主导因素。
英文摘要: Increase of the intensity and frequency of extreme flood events has been a big challenge of regional water resources security. Based on daily discharge data during 1957-2011 in the Kaidu watershed, annual maximum daily discharge, maximum daily discharge in spring and maximum daily discharge in summer at Bayblk and Dashankou hydrological stations are extracted, respectively. Linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt test are used to analysis the variation of the 6 series. Then, the series are selected to describe the extreme distributions of GEV, and frequency of extreme floods is analyzed. The results indicated that, there are no significant trend and no change point in the 6 series in which the annual maximum daily discharge at Bayblk station, the annual maximum daily discharge at Dashankou station and the maximum daily discharge in spring at Bayblk station fitted the Frechet distribution, and the maximum daily discharge in spring at Dashankou station, the maximum daily discharge in summer at Bayblk station and the maximum daily discharge in summer at Dashankou station fitted the Gumbel distribution. Since 1980s, frequency of extreme floods in the Kaidu River obviously increased; the number of floods in summer continuous increase at the Bayblk station, and the number of floods both in spring and summer increase at Dashankou station; occurrence time of spring floods shift to an earlier date at both two hydrological stations. The increase of precipitation in winter, and the rise of temperature in spring have important contribution to spring flood changes; the increase of extreme rainfall in summer would be dominant factors for changes of summer floods.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151170
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
2.新疆科技战略发展研究院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国

Recommended Citation:
黄粤,陈曦,刘铁,等. 基于GEV分布的天山开都河洪水频率特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2016-01-01,12(1):2316-2325
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