globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5711709
论文题名:
具有趋势变异的非一致水文序列重现期计算研究
其他题名: Return periods of non-stationary hydrological series with trend alteration
作者: 史黎翔; 宋松柏
刊名: 水力发电学报
ISSN: 1003-1243
出版年: 2016
卷: 35, 期:5, 页码:2529-2538
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 水文频率分析 ; 非一致性 ; 时变参数模型 ; 重现期
英文关键词: hydrological frequency analysis ; non-stationarity ; time-varying parameter model ; return period
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 气候变化和人类活动会导致水文序列的非一致性,而非一致水文序列的重现期计算方法并没有统一。本文对比了传统重现期、基准年重现期、基于事件发生时间期望(EWT)的重现期和通过序列成分分析法计算的重现期,以探讨具有趋势变异的非一致水文序列重现期计算方法。以渭河流域林家村站年径流量序列为例,构建时变参数概率模型,计算各类重现期相应的设计年径流量。结果表明,传统重现期计算方法用单一分布无法准确描述含有趋势变异的水文序列。在研究区年径流量呈现减小趋势的背景下,小径流量事件发生概率增大,但大重现期相应的设计年径流量并没有逐年减小。EWT重现期较基准重现期考虑了趋势变异的影响,而基准重现期计算简单。文中方法以期为非一致性水文序列频率分析提供依据。
英文摘要: Climate change and human activities often result in non-stationarity in hydrological series, but no general consensus on the methods for calculation of the return period of non-stationary series has been reached yet. In this study, we compared several methods, including traditional method, time point method, expected waiting time (EWT), and component analysis, and took a case study of the annual runoff series for the Linjiacun station on the Wei River. A time-varying parameter model was used to fit the probability distribution of non-stationary series and calculate the design values of runoff at different return periods. The results indicate that the traditional method fails to correctly describe the probability distribution of hydrological series featured with trend alteration. In the condition of a decreasing annual runoff in the study area, the probability of small runoffs is increasing year by year, while the runoffs corresponding to long return periods does not show a decreasing trend. In comparison of EWT and time point method, the former can take the influence of trend alteration into account, while the latter has the advantage of easier calculation. The analysis and comparison of the methods presented in the paper would lay a basis for analysis of non-stationary hydrological series.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151490
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国

Recommended Citation:
史黎翔,宋松柏. 具有趋势变异的非一致水文序列重现期计算研究[J]. 水力发电学报,2016-01-01,35(5):2529-2538
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[史黎翔]'s Articles
[宋松柏]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[史黎翔]'s Articles
[宋松柏]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[史黎翔]‘s Articles
[宋松柏]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.