globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5694653
论文题名:
淮河流域极端降水概率分布模型及其应用
其他题名: Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin
作者: 陆苗1; 高超2; 姚梦婷1; 苏布达3; 徐光来2
刊名: 水土保持通报
ISSN: 1000-288X
出版年: 2016
卷: 36, 期:2, 页码:254-259
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 极端降水 ; Wakeby函数 ; 超门限峰法 ; 概率分布模型 ; 重现期 ; 淮河流域
英文关键词: extreme precipitation ; Wakeby function ; peak over threshold ; probability distribution model ; return period ; Huaihe River basin
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: [目的]研究淮河流域极端降水最优概率分布模型,旨在为洪水计算规范修改和调整提供参考。 [方法]基于淮河流域110个气象站点19592008年的日降水资料,通过年最大值法(AM)及超门限峰法(POT)分别建立极端降水AM及POT序列,比较两者捕捉极端降水的适用性,建立淮河流域极端降水最优概率分布模型,并对其应用进行探讨。[结果](1)在研究流域极端降水空间分布上,POT序列适用性更强,能较好捕捉降水极值。在研究极端降水时间变化上,AM序列更合理;(2)经K-S法检验,Wakeby函数是AM及POT序列的最优概率分布模型,优于水利工程标准曲线PearsonⅢ函数,且Wakeby函数的中部拟合效果比尾部更优。[结论]最优概率分布模型在气候变化的研究中得到较好地应用,近25a来淮河流域极端降水强度呈增长趋势,且频率增大,需加强对该流域极端降水灾害的防治减灾工作。
英文摘要: [Objective]Studying the optimal probability distribution model of extreme precipitation in order to provide basis for the standard modification of flood calculation method.[Methods]Based on the daily precipitation data from 110meteorological stations during 19592008in the Huaihe River basin,annual maximum series(AM)and peak over threshold series(POT)were established to compare the applicability of them.The optimal probability distribution models of extreme precipitation for AM and POT were established and the applications were discussed.[Results]In the study of spatial distribution of extreme precipitation,POT was proved to be more reasonable than AM.In dealing with temporal sequence,AM was more reasonable. Checked by K-S method,Wakeby was the optimal function for the two kinds of series.The estimation accuracy of Wakeby was higher than the performance of PearsonⅢ,which is regarded as the standard frequency curve in the water conservancy project;especially,the middle part of Wakeby fitted better than its tail did. [Conclusion]The probability distribution model can get a better application in the climate change.The extreme precipitation showed an increasing trend during 19842008and the frequency is increasing.The government needs to take some measures to deal with extreme precipitation disasters.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151516
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室, 芜湖, 安徽 241000, 中国
2.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 芜湖, 安徽 241000, 中国
3.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
陆苗,高超,姚梦婷,等. 淮河流域极端降水概率分布模型及其应用[J]. 水土保持通报,2016-01-01,36(2):254-259
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