globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5862495
论文题名:
1961-2010年锡林郭勒盟气温和降水时空变化特征
其他题名: Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010
作者: 佟斯琴1; 刘桂香2; 武娜3
刊名: 水土保持通报
ISSN: 1000-288X
出版年: 2016
卷: 36, 期:5, 页码:255-263
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 锡林郭勒 ; 气温 ; 降水量 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: Xilingol League ; air temperature ; precipitation ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: [目的]分析内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟气温和降水量时空变化规律,为草原区环境演化提供科学支撑,同时也对气温和降水的短期预警提供依据。[方法]利用研究区境内15个气象站点1961-2010年的逐月平均气温和月降水资料,结合一元线性回归分析、趋势分析、MK突变检验以及Morlet小波分析方法,分析近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温和降水时空变化特征及周期。[结果]近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温以0.44 ℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势,其中冬季温度上升最明显;年均气温有较明显的突变特征,突变点出现在1991年,突变前后2个时段平均气温相差1.32 ℃;存在28,9和5 a的周期律,未来几年仍处于暖期。降水呈波动下降趋势,速率为3.9 mm/10 a,夏季降水下降最明显;年降水量没有明显的突变点,存在25和7 a的震荡周期,未来几年仍处于少雨阶段。[结论]近50 a来锡林郭勒盟地区气候呈明显干旱化趋势。
英文摘要: [Objective] This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia, in order to provide a scientific support for environmental evolution and early warning of temperature and precipitation change in this area. [Methods] We collected monthly mean air temperature and precipitation data of 15 meteorological site in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010. The unitary linear recursive analysis,linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of climate change. [Results] The annual mean temperature demonstrated a significant increasing trend during the past 50 years at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a. The increase of temperature in winter was the greatest with an increasing rate of 0.52 ℃/10 a. The annual mean temperature changed abruptly in 1991,and there was a 1.32 ℃ temperature difference before and after this abrupt change. There were significant cyclical changes at 28 a,9 a and 5 a periods, and it is still in warm period in the next few years. Annual precipitation showed a downward trend from 1961 to 2010 at a rate of 3.9 mm/10 a,and it is most obvious in summer. There were significant cyclical changes at 25 and 7 years period with no obvious abrupt change point, and it is still in the stage of little rain in the next few years. [Conclusion] The climate of Xilingol League showed a trend of drought during the past 50 years.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151525
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.东北师范大学环境学院自然灾害研究所, 长春, 吉林 130024, 中国
2.中国农业科学院草原研究所, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010010, 中国
3.内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010010, 中国

Recommended Citation:
佟斯琴,刘桂香,武娜. 1961-2010年锡林郭勒盟气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 水土保持通报,2016-01-01,36(5):255-263
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