globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5858193
论文题名:
基于IPCC-CMIP5预估21世纪中国近海海表温度变化
其他题名: Projected 21st century sea surface temperature over offshore China based on IPCC-CMIP5 models
作者: 谭红建1; 蔡榕硕1; 颜秀花2
刊名: 应用海洋学学报
ISSN: 2095-4972
出版年: 2016
卷: 35, 期:4, 页码:267-280
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 物理海洋学 ; 海表温度 ; 中国近海 ; 预估升温
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; physical oceanography ; SST ; CMIP5 ; offshore China ; projected warming
WOS学科分类: OCEANOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向: Oceanography
中文摘要: 观测事实表明,近百年来全球气候经历了显著的变暖过程,并且在人类活动排放的CO_2等温室气体不断增加的前提下,未来变暖将会持续下去.利用IPCC第五次评估报告中34个CMIP5模式对于未来不同CO_2排放情景下的输出结果,评估了未来百年中国近海海表温度(SST)的变化趋势.结果表明,基于当前人类的CO_2典型排放速度(RCP4.5),中国近海的大部分海区在2030年以后普遍升温并将接近或超过1℃(相对于1970~2005年的历史海温).其中,中高纬度海区的升温速率最为明显,黄海、渤海和东海的增温幅度明显高于南海,在2030~2039、2060~2069年和2090~2099年间的升温将会分别超过1、2℃和3℃左右.在CO_2加倍排放的情景下(RCP8.5),渤海在21世纪末最大升温可能接近5℃,从而成为全球升温幅度最大的区域之一.由此可见,未来气候变暖背景下中国近海的环境生态将面临严重挑战,这也使得控制减少温室气体的排放、降低气候变化的风险成为当前的紧迫议题.
英文摘要: The observations of the increasing greenhouse gases driving the global warming over the past century shows that the warming will continue in the future. In this study, the trend of sea surface temperature (SST) over offshore China in the 21st century is assessed based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP5). The results show that under the midrange mitigation emissions scenario (RCP4.5), SST over most of offshore China will increase by nearly 1℃around the year 2030 relative to the historical period (1970~2005). SST in the middle and high latitudes sea areas will rise faster than that of low latitude. Specifically, the East China Seas (including Bohai sea, Yellow sea and East China sea) will increase by about 1℃, 2℃, and 3℃ between the period 2030~2039,2060~2069, and 2090~2099, respectively, the magnitude of which are larger than that in the South China Sea. Under the doubled CO_2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the Bohai sea SST will rise up by about 5℃ by the end of the 21st century, and it will be the biggest warming areas in the world. These changes will pose serious risks to marine ecosystems and society on and around offshore China. It is an impress issue to curb the greenhouse gas discharge and bring down the risks of climatic changes.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151686
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心, 国家海洋局海洋-大气化学与全球变化重点实验室, 北京 100190, 中国
2.国家海洋局第三海洋研究所, 国家海洋局海洋-大气化学与全球变化重点实验室, 厦门, 福建 361005, 中国

Recommended Citation:
谭红建,蔡榕硕,颜秀花. 基于IPCC-CMIP5预估21世纪中国近海海表温度变化[J]. 应用海洋学学报,2016-01-01,35(4):267-280
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