globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5685192
论文题名:
未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响
其他题名: Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Yunnan,China
作者: 胡雪琼; 徐梦莹; 何雨芩; 张明达; 吉文娟; 朱勇
刊名: 应用生态学报
ISSN: 1001-9332
出版年: 2016
卷: 27, 期:4, 页码:269-276
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 烤烟 ; 气候变化 ; 适宜性
英文关键词: flue-cured tobacco ; climate change ; suitability
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 云南烤烟种植的气候适宜性分布将受到气候变化的深刻影响. 根据云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的3个决定因子(7月平均气温、78月日照时数、49月降水量),利用19812060年的气候模拟数据及19862005年的气象台站实测数据,分析了19862005年及RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下20212040年、20412060年云南烤烟种植气候适宜性分布的变化. 结果表明: 未来气候情景下,云南烤烟种植气候适宜分布呈现北抬东扩的趋势,未来云南烤烟可种植区域将呈逐渐增加的趋势,且20412060年增幅大于20212040年、RCP8.5情景的增幅大于RCP4.5情景,其中,烤烟的最适宜区域、次适宜区域增幅均较大,适宜区域则变化不大. 未来云南中北部烟区的昆明、曲靖、大理、楚雄、丽江最适宜区面积与可种植面积增幅较大,文山、红河、普洱、西双版纳等南部烟区最适宜区面积与可种植面积减幅较大.
英文摘要: The climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan will be profoundly affected by climate change. According to three key factors influencing climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan,namely,average temperature in July,sunshine duration from July to August,precipitation from April to September,the variations of climatic suitability distribution of flue-cured tobacco planting in Yunnan respectively in 1986 - 2005,2021 - 2040 and 2041-2060 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were investigated by using the climatic simulation data in 1981-2060 and the meteorological observation data during 1986-2005. The results showed that climatic suitability region would expand northward and eastward and plantable area of flue-cured tobacco would gradually increase. The increment of plantable area was more in 2041- 2060 than in 2021-2040,and under RCP8.5 scenario than under RCP4.5 scenario. The optimum climatic area and sub-suitable climatic area were expanded considerably,while the suitable climatic area was not much changed. In the future,the north-central Yunnan such as Kunming,Qujing, Dali,Chuxiong,Lijiang would have a big increase in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area,meanwhile,the southern Yunnan including Wenshan,Honghe,Puer and Xishuangbanna would have a big decrease in both the optimum climatic area and the cultivable area.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151711
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 云南省气候中心, 昆明, 云南 650034, 中国

Recommended Citation:
胡雪琼,徐梦莹,何雨芩,等. 未来气候变化对云南烤烟种植气候适宜性的影响[J]. 应用生态学报,2016-01-01,27(4):269-276
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