globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5636806
论文题名:
海平面上升引发的极端高水位的频率风险评估模型及其应用 以宁波为例
其他题名: Model for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Extreme High Water Level Caused by Rising Sea Level and Its Application A Case Study in Ningbo
作者: 汪杨骏1; 张韧1; 钱龙霞1; 葛珊珊1; 王锋2
刊名: 灾害学
ISSN: 1000-811X
出版年: 2016
卷: 31, 期:1, 页码:273-278
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 海平面上升 ; 极端高水位 ; 频率风险分析 ; 耿贝尔极值法 ; 灰色Verhulst模型 ; 宁波
英文关键词: sea level rise ; extreme high water level ; risk analysis of frequency ; Geng Baer extremum method ; grey Verhulst model ; Ningbo
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 海平面上升是全球变化研究的热点,海平面上升引发的极端高水位事件将严重威胁沿海城市的经济发展和社会生活。因此在当前气候变化背景下,开展极端高水位事件的风险评估显得尤为重要和迫切。对此引入频率风险思想,从极端高水位事件发生的频率、强度和造成的后果等角度构建了频率风险的概念模型和评价指标体系,建立了基于耿贝尔极值法、灰色Verhulst模型和ArcGIS平台的极端高水位频率风险评估模型; 以浙江省宁波市为例,进行了气候变化情景下不同极端高水位发生频率对我国沿海城市遭受经济损失的风险评估实验。结果表明,基于国内外众多学者对我国极端高水位预估情景,2050年极端高水位事件的发生频率预期将远大于当前,沿海城市岸堤的防范能力较之目前将有大幅度的降低; 并给出了不同强度的极端高水位事件对宁波市构成潜在威胁和经济损失风险的定量评估。
英文摘要: Sea level rise,which is a focus topic of global change study,will cause extreme high water level events bringing a series threat to the coastal city of economic development and social life. Therefore,in the background of the current climate change,we carry out risk assessment of extreme high water level events is particularly important and urgent. We introduce frequency risk ideology to construct frequency risk model and evolution index system containing frequency. Intensity and consequences of the extreme high water events. We established this model based on Gumbel extremum method,grey Verhulst model and ArcGIS platform,taking Ningbo city as an example to study the risk of the economic losses which Chinas coastal city has suffered under different extreme high water level scenarios with the climate change. The results show that the occurrence frequency of extreme high water level events will be far greater than the current bank coastal city based on many domestic and foreign scholarspredicting; the prevention ability will be greatly reduced. we also give the quantitative assessment of different extreme high water level eventspotential threats to Ningbo and its economic losses.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151754
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 南京, 江苏 211101, 中国
2.河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区气象局, 唐山, 河北 063000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
汪杨骏,张韧,钱龙霞,等. 海平面上升引发的极端高水位的频率风险评估模型及其应用 以宁波为例[J]. 灾害学,2016-01-01,31(1):273-278
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