globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5632716
论文题名:
产业结构调整对北京市碳减排目标的影响
其他题名: Research on Industrial Structure Adjustment to the Influence of Beijing Carbon Emissions Reduction Targets
作者: 张宏艳; 江悦明; 冯婷婷
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2016
卷: 26, 期:2, 页码:284-292
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 产业结构 ; CO2排放 ; STIRPAT模型 ; LMDI方法
英文关键词: industrial structure ; carbon emissions ; STIRPAT Model ; LMDI Method
WOS学科分类: ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics
中文摘要: 中国向世界承诺将能源消耗强度和CO_2排放强度作为约束性指标,实现2020年单位国内生产总值碳排放强度较2005年下降40% - 45%。北京作为中国的首都,对其他城市更具有示范作用"。本文以北京市产业结构为基础,根据能源消耗种类、政府间气候变化委员会公布的折算系数和北京实际生产总值,计算1995 - 2012年北京市碳排放水平。文中首先运用基于环境影响评估的可拓展随机模型,检验出第一、二、三产业结构与CO_2排放量之间存在显著关系,并计算出总体产业结构变动的相对贡献水平。而后重点把三大产业进行细分为7个产业,即第一产业、工业、建筑业、电力热力、交通运输仓储邮政业、批发零售住宿餐饮业和生活部门,验证了细分产业与CO_2排放最之间存在显著关系,并计算出各个产业的相对贡献水平。随后利用对数权重平衡分析法先对三大产业的CO_2排放水平进行绝对量分解,同时按7个产业进行绝对量分解,并结合随机拓展模型进行分析。最后研究北京市产业结构调整对碳减排的效应,提出要同时加快内部产业升级与产业间协调发展,加快提升第三产业能源利用效率的政策建议。
英文摘要: China has committed to the world to reduce the intensity of energy consumption and carbon emission by 40% - 50% in 2020, compared with its carbon emission per GDP of 2005. As the capital city, Beijing would set the model for the rest of the country. Based on the industrial structure of Beijing, we measured its carbon emission from 1995 to 2012 according to the energy resources, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coefficients and the real output value of Beijing. The Expandable Stochastic Model of Environment Effect Appraisal testifies the significant coefficient between carbon emission and industrial structure. It also measures the contribution of changes on the overall industrial structure. Then we divide the industry into seven sections, i. e., the first industry, industry, construction, power and heating industry, transportation storage and postage, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and catering services, and life department. The coefficients are significant between the sub sectors and carbon emission, and the contribution of each sub sector is calculated respectively. Then the carbon emission level of each sector is measured through the Logarithmic Weight Balance Analysis and the Expandable Stochastic Model. The influence of industrial structure adjustments is studied on the reduction of carbon emission. Suggestions are put forward on the internal upgrade of industries and the coordinated development between them. For the tertiary industry, the efficiency of energy consumption should be improved.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151900
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 北京工商大学经济学院, 北京 100048, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张宏艳,江悦明,冯婷婷. 产业结构调整对北京市碳减排目标的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2016-01-01,26(2):284-292
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