globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5872124
论文题名:
基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建
其他题名: Reconstruction and Comparative Analysis of Dry/Wet Series during 1470-2008 in Northwest China
作者: 何则; 何元庆; 王世金; 庞娟; 辛惠娟; 刘婧
刊名: 中国沙漠
ISSN: 1000-694X
出版年: 2016
卷: 36, 期:5, 页码:2878-2885
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 干湿气候 ; 气候重建 ; 周期 ; 突变 ; 西北地区
英文关键词: dry/wet climate ; climate reconstruction ; periodicities ; abrupt change ; Northwest China
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于历史文献中的旱涝灾害记录,采用5级制划分的旱涝灾害等级,使用系统聚类法将中国西北地区19个站点划分为7个分区,利用湿润指数公式重建了西北地区7个分区1470-2008年的年分辨率干湿变化序列,比较分析了各分区干湿气候变化的阶段特征、周期性及跃变现象。结果表明:重建序列信度较高,可用作气候干湿变化研究。西北地区7个分区1470-2008年干湿变化存在着11a、25~35a和80~100a的3类周期变化。其中,11a和25~35a的两个周期变化在整个分析时间段内表现得较为稳定;80~100a的周期变化则表现的较不稳定。世纪尺度和气候代尺度的跃变信号各区皆有出现,位于研究区两边的陕西和玉树地区出现最少,宁夏和格尔木地区次之;位置居中的兰州、张掖、西宁等地区跃变信号出现最多,是气候干湿变化的敏感地带。检测出的干湿跃变信号主要集中在17世纪前后,近百年气候干湿变化则相对稳定。
英文摘要: Based on the historical record,dry/wet series since 1470-2008 AD in Northwest China were reconstructed and analyzed.The dry/wet series for 7 regions are expressed by five grades,and dry/wet climate is obtained from a cluster analysis on annual data during 1470-2008 at 19 stations in Northwest China.The variation feature of the dry/wet series,such as phase characteristics,periodicity and abrupt change,are presented. The results show that the reconstruction of sequence reliability is high,and it can be used as a dry/wet climate change research.Wavelet analysis shows that those periodicities existed in the last 500 years,such as the periods of around 11 year,25-35 year,80-100 year.Among them,11 years and 35 years periodicities in the whole analysis period are relatively stable than80-100 years periodicities.The signs of abrupt changes in the 7 regional dry/wet series were detected by moving t-test.It is indicated that abrupt climatic changes have occurred for every regions in Northwest China during 1470-2008 AD.Both edge of the study area, such as Shaanxi and Yushu,abrupt signal appears fewest times;Ningxia and Golmud is second;the signal appears most times in the middle study area such as Lanzhou,Zhang ye,Xining.It means middle area is the sensitive area of dry/wet climate change.The dry/wet abrupt signal mainly concentrated in the 17th century, dry/wet climate change in recent century is relatively stable.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151939
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
何则,何元庆,王世金,等. 基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建[J]. 中国沙漠,2016-01-01,36(5):2878-2885
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