globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5703610
论文题名:
气候变化与人类活动对闽江流域径流变化的影响
其他题名: Impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff of Minjiang River Basin
作者: 郭晓英1; 陈兴伟2; 陈莹2; 王跃峰3
刊名: 中国水土保持科学
ISSN: 1672-3007
出版年: 2016
卷: 14, 期:2, 页码:290-296
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 径流 ; TFPW-MK检验 ; 经验判别 ; 气候弹性系数 ; 闽江流域
英文关键词: climate variability ; human activities ; runoff ; TFPW-MK test ; empirical discriminant method ; coefficient of climatic elasticity ; Minjiang River Basin
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响是探究径流演变机制及水土流失防控的关键之一。采用Trend free prewhitening MK检验法分析闽江干流及3大子流域1960-2010年径流和气象要素的变化特征,并将经验判别法和气候弹性系数法相结合,分析气候变化和人类活动对闽江流域径流变化的影响。结果表明:闽江流域的年径流、降雨量总体呈上升趋势,潜在蒸发量则为下降趋势,且在20世纪70年代初发生突变;闽江干流和3大子流域的气候变化导致径流增加,其中降雨量的增加和潜在蒸发量的减少是主要原因,而人类活动主要起减流的作用;干流和3大子流域气候变化对径流变化的贡献率高于人类活动,仅21世纪初建溪流域和沙溪流域除外。可见,气候变化是闽江流域径流增加的主要原因,但人类活动的影响不容忽视。
英文摘要: [Background] Quantitative analysis on the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff is one of the keys to inquiring about runoff change mechanism and control of soil erosion. Minjiang River is the largest river in Fujian Province,and the change of water resources has important influence on social economy and ecological environment. In recent years, many researches focused on the change characteristics of runoff, precipitation and temperature in Minjiang River Basin. However, little studies have reported on the change characteristics of potential evaporation, and the relative effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff. [Methods] The observed monthly river discharge of 4 hydrological stations and monthly meteorological data (precipitation, temperature, wind, sunshine hours, and relative humidity) of 23 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2010 were collected. Characteristics of the variation of hydro-climatic changes over the last 51 years were analyzed based on the TFPW-MK, and the relative effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff were investigated based on an empirical discriminant method and climate elasticity method. [Results] Firstly, runoff and precipitation of the Minjiang River were on the rise in general while potential evaporation was declining and had a sudden change in the early 1970s. Secondly, relative effect of climate variability was greater than that of human activities in Minjiang River Basin and three sub-basins under different decades relative to 1960s, except in the beginning of 21st century in Jianxi River sub-basin and Shaxi River sub-basin, in which the contributions of human activities accounted for 60% and 52% of the changes in streamflow, respectively. Additionally, the contribution of the climate variability on the runoff in Minjiang River Basin and Futunxi River sub-basin was the largest in the 21st Century, accounting for 86% and 89% of runoff changes respectively, and the contribution of the climate variability in Jianxi River sub-basin and Shaxi River sub-basin was the largest in 1990s, accounting for 86% and 89%, respectively. [Conclusions] In general, the results from the empirical discriminant method and climate elasticity method were the same on the whole, climate variability leaded to an increased streamflow while human activities always resulted in a decrease of streamflow. The increase of precipitation and decrease of potential evaporation were the major reasons for the increase of runoff. Moreover, the relative effects of climate variability and human activities varied among sub-basins, and the differences in the internal climate and human activities were the main reasons. The impact of climate variability on runoff was the most significant in the Minjiang main stream and three sub-basins in 1990s; the impact of human activities on runoff was the most significant in the Minjiang main stream and Futunxi River sub-basin in 1990s and in Jianxi River sub-basin and Shaxi River sub-basin in 1980s and the beginning of the 21st century, respectively.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151961
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.福建师范大学地理科学学院, 福州, 福建 350007, 中国
2.福建师范大学地理科学学院, 湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培养基地
3.福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心, 福州, 福建 350007, 中国
4.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210093, 中国

Recommended Citation:
郭晓英,陈兴伟,陈莹,等. 气候变化与人类活动对闽江流域径流变化的影响[J]. 中国水土保持科学,2016-01-01,14(2):290-296
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