globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5839357
论文题名:
延河流域径流过程对气候变化及人类活动的响应
其他题名: Responses of runoff process to climate change and human activities in Yanhe River basin
作者: 龚珺夫1; 李占斌2; 任宗萍1
刊名: 中国水土保持科学
ISSN: 1672-3007
出版年: 2016
卷: 14, 期:5, 页码:290-299
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 延河流域 ; 趋势分析 ; Hurst指数 ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动
英文关键词: Yanhe River basin ; trend analysis ; Hurst index ; climate change ; human activities
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 在全球气候变暖背景下,关注流域水文与气象要素的变化尤为必要。为了揭示气候变化及人类活动对延河流域径流的影响程度,本文运用Mann-Kendall方法和重标极差法,分析流域径流深、降水和气温等要素在1955-2012年间的变化;利用Pettitt突变检验,识别出径流的突变年份,并采用水文敏感性分析方法,定量区分气象因素和人类活动对延河流域径流变化的贡献。结果表明:1955-2012年,延河流域降水减少89.4 mm,气温升高2.15 ℃,径流深减少17.3 mm,呈现暖干化趋势。径流突变发生在1996年,与1955-1995年相比,1996-2012年的年平均径流深减少11.7 mm;其中人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为56%。研究阐明延河流域气候有暖干化的趋势,且人类活动作用在径流减少中所占比重较大,并对该区水资源合理利用与管理具有较好的指导意义。
英文摘要: [Background] It is especially significant to study the hydrological and meteorological elements of river basin against the backdrop of global warming. The river runoff is a result of combined influence from both meteorological factors and the condition of underlying surface. Climate change is one of the major driving factors in the variation of runoff and also exerts direct impact on the water resources system. Despite of that, the underlying surface transformation by human being activities also change the runoff of river basin. [Methods] In order to reveal the influence of meteorological factors and the disturbance of human activity on the runoff change in Yanhe River basin, this article analyzed the runoff and meteorological elements of Yanhe River basin from 1955 to 2012 by means of Mann-Kendall test and R/S methods. The year of abrupt runoff change was identified by Pettitt's test, and the hydrological sensitivity analysis was adopted to quantitatively differentiate the contributions between meteorological elements and human activities to runoff change of Yanhe River basin. [Results] The precipitation and runoff happened much more from June to September, during this period, the precipitation and runoff were 71% and 63% of the total annual amount. The runoff presented an increasing tendency in Jan., Feb., May, Dec., especially in Jan. respectively; and the runoff in other months descended, especially in March, July, Aug. respectively. The runoff showed a descending tendency in spring flood period from March to April and flood period from June to October. Conversely, the runoff in drought period increased. It showed that the annual runoff distribution tended to be more even, and the runoff process became mild. During the 58 years between 1955 to 2012, the precipitation of Yanhe River basin reduced 89.4 mm, with a temperature rising of 2.15 ℃ and a 17.3 mm decrease of runoff depth, both climate and runoff depth registered evident variation, demonstrating a warming-drying trend of the basin. As the Hurst index indicated, this trend will remain in a period of time in the future. According to the Pettitt change-point test, the abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1996. The average annual runoff depth dropped 11.7 mm during 1996-2012 compared with that of 1955-1995, among which the contribution rate of human activities was 56% while climate change contributed 44%. [Conclusions] This article illustrates that the climate of the Yanhe River basin had the tendency of warming and drying, and human activities accounted for a large proportion in the runoff reduction. The results of the study in this area have favorable guiding significance to the reasonable use of water resources and the management.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151965
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.西安理工大学, 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国
2.西安理工大学, 西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室
3.黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国

Recommended Citation:
龚珺夫,李占斌,任宗萍. 延河流域径流过程对气候变化及人类活动的响应[J]. 中国水土保持科学,2016-01-01,14(5):290-299
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