globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5822060
论文题名:
安徽省气候变化特征与旱涝区域响应
其他题名: Climatic change and drought-flood regional responses in Anhui
作者: 唐宝琪; 延军平; 曹永旺; 刘永林
刊名: 中山大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0529-6579
出版年: 2016
卷: 55, 期:5, 页码:2926-2938
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 旱涝 ; Z指数 ; 安徽省
英文关键词: climate change ; drought-flood ; Z index ; Anhui province
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于安徽省15个气象站点1961-2013年逐月降水数据统计资料,运用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析以及Z指数,对安徽省气候和旱涝的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:①近53a安徽省气候经历了冷干-冷湿-暖湿-暖干的转变,整体呈现暖湿化特征,但21世纪以来则逐渐转变成暖干化。②四季降水不同步,夏季和冬季降水呈上升趋势,春季和秋季降水则呈下降趋势,其中夏季降水增加对安徽省降水变化的贡献率最大。降水周期振荡规律显著,存在28,22,14和4a时间尺度上的震荡周期。③近53a安徽省旱涝事件整体上表现为下降趋势,存在涝-旱-涝的循环交替过程,且年代际变化比较明显。④安徽省多年平均降水在空间分布上呈现南多北少的格局,干旱主要发生在皖西大别山北麓地区,而洪涝主要发生在淮河一带和长江水系下游区。
英文摘要: Based on the meteorological data of 15 stations in Anhui province,influences of different disaster inducing factors on drought and flood were analyzed by using linear regression,Mann-Kendall test method,wavelet analysis and Z index to explore the trend of drought and floor in this province under global warming condition. The results showed that: ① Anhui has experienced a series of climate phase transformation from cold-dry to cold-wet,warm-wet,and warm-dry during recent 53 years,with warming and wetting trend on the whole,but warming and drying since the 21th century. ② The summer and winter precipitation shows an upward trend,while the autumn and spring precipitation decreases; summer precipitation increase makes the largest contribution to the precipitation changes. On the time scale,there are 28,22,14 and 4 year oscillation cycles. ③ Droughts and floods in recent 53 years present a seriously overall downward trend,with alternation of floods and droughts and an obvious inter-decadal variation. ④ In the aspect of spatial distribution,droughts mainly occur at the juncture of Wanxi area,while floods mainly occur in the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River downstream.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/151992
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作者单位: 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710119, 中国

Recommended Citation:
唐宝琪,延军平,曹永旺,等. 安徽省气候变化特征与旱涝区域响应[J]. 中山大学学报. 自然科学版,2016-01-01,55(5):2926-2938
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