globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5811310
论文题名:
香格里拉未来50a主要气候环境要素变化预估基于小波分析和多元VAR回归预估模型
其他题名: Climatic and environmental changes in Shangri-La in next 50 years according to wavelet analysis and multiple VAR regression prediction modeling
作者: 刘盈曦1; 彭贵芬2; 陈先刚3; 杨宇明4
刊名: 资源科学
ISSN: 1007-7588
出版年: 2016
卷: 38, 期:9, 页码:29-35
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 香格里拉 ; 气候环境要素 ; 气候变化 ; 小波分析 ; 多元VAR ; 耦合分析
英文关键词: Shangri- La ; climatic and environmental factors ; climate change ; wavelet analysis ; Multiple VAR ; coupling analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 采用云南省香格里拉气象站55a(1958-2012)的逐年气温、降水量、绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数资料,引入多元最小二乘估计模型(多元OLS)、多元向量自回归模型(多元VAR)和结构方程模型,基于Morlet连续复小波 (Cmor)变换的主周期数据,探索未来50a香格里拉气温等气候环境要素的定量预估模型、变化趋势及5个主要气候环境要素的相互关系。结果表明:未来50a内香格里拉的气温以0.44℃/10a的速率升高,50a后气温将升高2℃左右;降水以围绕平均值做周期振荡为主,并以14.7mm/10a的速率增多;绝对湿度以0.06 mg/L/10a的速率增大,并有明显的周期振荡;相对湿度以-0.96%/10a的速率减小,并有周期振荡;年霜日数以-2.8d/10a的速率减少,并有周期振荡。绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数的变化与气温和降水的变化显著相关,气温变化对湿度和霜日数的影响大于降水量的影响,气温的持续升高是除降水外其他气候要素变化的主要原因。
英文摘要: Using main cycle data transformed from Molet continuous complex wavelet(CMOR) we explored Shangri- La's five main climatic and environmental factors'(yearly temperature, precipitation,absolute huidity,relative humidity and frost days)quantitative prediction models, variation trends and multiple relations based on multiple Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)model, multiple Vector Auto-regression(VAR)modeling and Structural Equation Model(SEM). The raw data was from the Shangri- La meteorological station in Yunnan,China from 1958 to 2012. We conclude that in next 50 years,Shangri-La's temperature will increase at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10a,it will rise about 2℃ after 50 years,reaching about 9℃. Shangri-La's precipitation shows periodic oscillation around its mean value,increasing at a rate of 14.7mm/10a. Shangri- La's absolute humidity will increase at a rate of 0.06 mg/L/10a with obvious periodic oscillation. Shangri-La's relative humidity will decrease at a rate of - 0.96 %/10a with periodic oscillation. Shangri- La's yearly frosty days will decrease at a rate of - 2.8 d/10a with periodic oscillation Shangri- La's temperature,precipitation and frost days were dependent on temperature and precipitation; temperature's effect is greater than precipitation's;and a continuous increase in temperature is the main reason for changes in all other climatic factors,except precipitation.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152015
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.云南财经大学, 昆明, 云南 650221, 中国
2.云南省气象台, 昆明, 云南 650034, 中国
3.西南林业大学环境科学与工程学院, 昆明, 云南 650224, 中国
4.云南省林业科学院, 昆明, 云南 650201, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘盈曦,彭贵芬,陈先刚,等. 香格里拉未来50a主要气候环境要素变化预估基于小波分析和多元VAR回归预估模型[J]. 资源科学,2016-01-01,38(9):29-35
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