Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions have become key factors restricting economic development in China. Shanxi Province is top-ranked nationwide in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and faces huge challenges regarding emissions reduction as an important national energy and heavy chemical industry base in China. A reasonable forecast of the peak year of carbon emissions will help clarify the accessibility of carbon- reduction targets and the effectiveness of carbon reduction programs. Here,taking Shanxi's annual GDP growth rate,energy saving rate and the replacement rate of renewable energy as parameters,we use different scenarios and combine IPAT modeling to predict medium and long-term energy carbon emissions and peak years of carbon emissions. Results show that compared with the annual replacement rate of renewable energy,the annual GDP growth rate and energy saving rate have more influence on the medium and long-term carbon emissions of Shanxi under current energy and structural conditions. The annual GDP growth rate and energy saving rate are critical for whether carbon emissions peak in 2030. Given the small to medium annual GDP growth rate,Shanxi's carbon emissions peak before 2030, coupled with energy conservation and energy structural adjustment. However,under the high annual GDP growth rate scenario,carbon emissions in 2015-2040 keep rising,and will not peak assuming constant current annual energy savings and the replacement rate for renewable energy. Raising the annual energy saving rate and replacement rate for renewable energy by 0.6 percentage points would ensure that carbon emissions peak by 2030.