globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5648336
论文题名:
低频气候变化对中国农业洪涝灾害的影响
其他题名: Influence of low frequency climate change on flood and waterlogging disaster of agriculture in China
作者: 顾西辉1; 张强2; 孔冬冬1; 刘剑宇1
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2016
卷: 25, 期:1, 页码:2950-2958
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 农业洪涝灾害 ; 气候指标 ; 平稳性 ; 冷暖事件 ; 中国
英文关键词: agricultural flood and waterlogging disasters ; climate index ; stationary ; cool or warm events ; China
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 分析了1951-2013年厄尔尼诺南方涛动(El Nino/Southern Oscillation, ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)、印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)、太平洋十年际震荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)和大西洋数十年际震荡(Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, AMO)与中国农业不同程度洪涝灾害的遥相关关系。研究结果如下:(1)东北、华南地区受前一年正的PDO和IOD影响农业洪涝灾害趋于增加,西南地区受前一年正的ENSO影响农业洪涝灾害趋于减少,东南沿海地区农业洪涝灾害受到多种气候指标的显著影响。(2)与农业洪涝灾害距平序列REOF时间模态具有显著相关关系的气候指标,在不同的时间尺度,其相关强度在近几十年往往趋于加强并能保持较好的平稳性,有利于农业洪涝灾害的预测。ENSO与农业洪涝灾害具有较强的相关关系,且其相关强度平稳性最好,最适合作为预测农业洪涝灾害潜在的气候指标。(3)不同事件/时期下气候指标对中国农业洪涝灾害有着相同(相互加强)或相异(相互削弱)影响。
英文摘要: Tele-connections between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and flood-waterlogging disaster of different levels in agriculture of China were analyzed. Results show that: (1) the flood-waterlogging disaster is increasing with positive PDO and IOD in the last year on northeast and south of China, while decreases with positive ENSO in the last year on southwest of China. However, the flood-hazard crop area of southeast coastal areas of China was influenced significantly by a variety of climate indexes. (2) The intensities of correlation between the temporal pattern of the REOFs and climate indices with significant level tend to strengthen and to maintain a good stability in recent decades on different time scales, and thus is useful to predict agricultural flood disasters. ENSO has a good relationship with flood-waterlogging disaster and the stability of the relationship is best among all, and so it is the most suitable as potential climate index for the prediction of agricultural flood disasters. (3) Climate indices have the same direction (reinforcing each other) or opposite direction (weakening each other) of influences on flood-water logging disaster in different cool or warm events/periods.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152021
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 1.中山大学, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国
2.中山大学, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室
3.广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国

Recommended Citation:
顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬,等. 低频气候变化对中国农业洪涝灾害的影响[J]. 自然灾害学报,2016-01-01,25(1):2950-2958
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