globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5699887
论文题名:
气候变化条件下21世纪中国九大流域极端月降水量时空演变分析
其他题名: Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution of extreme monthly precipitation in the nine major basins of China in 21st century under climate change
作者: 方国华; 戚核帅; 闻昕; 周磊
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2016
卷: 25, 期:2, 页码:295-298
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 广义极值分布 ; 极端降水 ; 平均降水
英文关键词: CMIP5 ; BCSD ; CMIP5 ; generalized extreme value (GEV) ; bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) ; extreme precipitation ; average precipitation
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 基于广义极值分布(GEV)建立了极端降水统计模拟模型,以20 a一遇重现期定义极端降水事件,利用误差订正与空间分解方法(BCSD)降尺度后的耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的全球气候模式模拟及预估月降水数据,对中国九大流域未来21世纪极端月降水量时空变化进行了预估分析,同时评估了CMIP5数据(降尺度后)对中国区域极端降水事件的模拟效果,探讨了极端降水和平均降水之间的相关性特征。结果表明: CMIP5数据在中国区域模拟效果良好,基本能保证在一个较高的可信度水平;1901-2005年历史极端月降水量呈东南多、西北少的分布格局,未来21世纪上下半叶各流域极端月降水量分别表现出+3.2%~+12.8%和+7.7%~+24.7%不同程度的增长趋势,增强变化形成近似由西北往东南高-低-高的空间分布格局;未来情景模式假定的辐射强迫加剧了未来极端月降水量的增长变化,尤其表现在21世纪下半叶;极端降水和平均降水在未来变化方面,北部和中部流域基本保持正相关性,而南部东南诸河流域和珠江流域呈负相关性。
英文摘要: Based on generalized extreme value distribution (GEV),the statistical model of precipitation extremes was established,the extreme precipitation events was defined by the recurrence period of 20 years and the bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled CMIP5 data were employed to fit the GEV distribution,aiming to quantify and evaluate the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation extremes of the nine major basins of China in 21st century,and to assess the simulation performance on precipitation extremes of downscaled CMIP5 data over China. The correlation between extreme and average precipitations was also discussed. The results show that,the CMIP5 GCM models simulated precipitation extremes over China reasonably well,which ensured a basically high level of credibility. The historical extreme monthly precipitation manifested a distribution pattern of more in the southeast and less in the northwestfor the period of 1901 - 2005,and the future extreme monthly precipitation was projected to increase by 3.2% - 12.8% and 7.7% - 24.7% in the first and second half of the 21st century,respectively. The increasing variation pattern was quite similar to the spatial distribution pattern of high - low - highfrom Northwest to Southeast. The increasing radiation forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in precipitation extreme magnitudes,especially in the second half of 21st Century. As for the correlation between the changes of extreme and average precipitations,the northern and central basins exhibited positive correlation,whereas the southern basins of Southeastern Rivers Basin and Pearl River Basin indicated partial negative correlations.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152022
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 河海大学水利水电学院, 南京, 江苏 210098, 中国

Recommended Citation:
方国华,戚核帅,闻昕,等. 气候变化条件下21世纪中国九大流域极端月降水量时空演变分析[J]. 自然灾害学报,2016-01-01,25(2):295-298
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