globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5699894
论文题名:
长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害时空变化及其风险评估
其他题名: Spatiotemporal variation and risk assessment of single-harvest rice heat injury along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
作者: 杨舒畅; 申双和; 陶苏林
刊名: 自然灾害学报
ISSN: 1004-4574
出版年: 2016
卷: 25, 期:2, 页码:295-299
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 一季稻 ; 高温热害 ; 风险评估 ; 长江中下游地区
英文关键词: Single-harvest-rice ; heat injury ; risk assessment ; the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用长江中下游83个气象台站1961-2012年的气温资料和区域内136个县一季稻种植面积、产量等资料,分析了一季稻高温热害发生的时空变化特点,并对高温热害进行了风险评估。结果表明,近52 a来,长江中下游一季稻各级高温热害发生频次的年际变化均呈开口向上的抛物线型。其中,1980-2012年高温热害发生的总频次以14.10次/10a的趋势增加。从高温热害发生频次的地域来看,湖北、湖南和江西3省多且危害程度重,安徽、浙江两省次之,而江苏省最少也最轻。高温热害发生概率高值区主要分布在湖南省南部和江西省南部,概率达40%以上。高温热害灾损率高值区出现在湖北巴东、湖南衡阳、江西吉安,灾损率为10%~14%。高温热害风险度以江西、湖南两省的南部地区较大,极值出现在湖南衡阳为0.36。在全球气候持续变暖的背景下,一季稻高温热害风险度将继续升高。
英文摘要: According to the air temperature data recorded by the 83 meteorological stations along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2012 and the data of single harvest rice planting area and yields in 136 counties within the region,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the occurrence frequency of singl-harvest rice heat injury,and conducted risk assessment for the injury. Results showed that,in the past 52 years,the inter-annual variation of all levels of damage occurrence frequency along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River took an open - top parabola shape. From 1980 to 2012,the total frequency increased at a rate of 14.10 times /10a. In terms of the region with high temperature damage,Hubei,Hunan and Jiangxi provinces suffered from the widest and the most serious damage,while in Anhui and Zhejiang Provinces,the damage was lighter,and Jiangsu Provinces damage was the least and the slightest. The probability of heat injury was relatively high in the south of Jiangxi and Hunan provinces,which reached 40% or higher. The high - value region of heat injury loss located in Badong of Hubei Province,Hengyang of Hunan Province and Jian of Jiangxi Province, which ranged from 10% to 14%. The risk degree of the high temperature damage is relatively higher in the southern part of Jiangxi and Hunan provinces,with a maximum of 0.36 in Hengyang,Hunan. Under the background of global warming,the risk degree of single - harvest - rice high temperature damage will continue to grow.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152023
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨舒畅,申双和,陶苏林. 长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害时空变化及其风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报,2016-01-01,25(2):295-299
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