globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5975835
论文题名:
长沙市近56年气候变化趋势及突变分析
其他题名: Climate change and mutation analysis of Changsha in recent 56 years
作者: 罗悦; 俞文政
刊名: 安徽农业大学学报
ISSN: 1672-352X
出版年: 2017
卷: 44, 期:2, 页码:2978-2984
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 长沙市 ; 气候变化 ; 趋势分析 ; 突变分析
英文关键词: Changsha city ; climate change ; trend analysis ; mutation analysis
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 利用长沙1959-2014年的气象台站观测资料,经整合订正分析,结合线性回归、Mann-Kendall、滑动T-检验和累计距平等方法对气候趋势变化及气候突变进行了分析。结果表明,近50年长沙气温度呈现上升趋势,且在近20年较为明显,其中最低温度增加幅度最大,年平均最低温56年来增幅为0.25℃·10a~(-1),近15年来增幅为0.92℃·10a~(-1);春冬两季温度上升相对明显;降水量无显著变化;相对湿度56年来呈现1.2%·10a~(-1)的显著减少趋势。气温由冷转暖的突变在季节上最早发生的是冬季(1991年),其次是春季(1996年),夏季(2002年)和秋季(2000年)突变时间较为接近,较好地符合全球变暖的时间规律。
英文摘要: After the homogeneity test and correction, the instrumental data of temperature, precipitation and humidity from the meteorological stations in Changsha during 1959-2014 were analyzed with the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall, Moving-T test and accumulative anomaly so as to detect the changing trends and jumping characteristics. It was found that the temperature in Changsha showed a rising trend during the last 56 years, which was particularly obvious in recent 20 years. The change ranges of different temperature indexes showed some differences, but they changed with the same trend, of which the minimum temperature showed the largest increasing trend. Annual average minimum temperature increased by 0.25℃·10a~(-1) in recent 56 years and 0.92℃·10a~(-1) in recent 15 years. There were significant differences among four seasons and of which the most obviously warming trend appeared in spring and winter. The relative humidity decreased by 1.2%·10a~(-1) in the past 56 years, while there was no significant change in precipitation. The abrupt change times in four seasons presented a good logical relation with the first mutation occurred in winter of 1991, and then in spring of 1996, and the final abrupt warming respectively occurred in summer of 2002 and autumn of 2000 with almost the same time.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/152046
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国

Recommended Citation:
罗悦,俞文政. 长沙市近56年气候变化趋势及突变分析[J]. 安徽农业大学学报,2017-01-01,44(2):2978-2984
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