Impact of Climate Change on Aerosol Concentrations in Eastern China Based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) Datasets
气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用"国际大气化学-气候模式比较计划"(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区(31°N~45°N, 105°E~122°E)硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。
英文摘要:
Changes in surface layer aerosol concentrations induced by climate change are important for understanding regional air quality. In this study, the impact of climate change on surface-layer aerosol concentrations over East Asia were investigated using multi-model results from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2000-2100. With anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors kept at year 2000 levels, the annual mean concentrations of surface-layer sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon over northern China (31°N-45°N, 105°E-122°E) were simulated to increase by 28%, 21%, and 9%, respectively, owing to climate change over 2000-2100. Compared to that in 2000, annual mean surface-layer nitrate concentration in 2100 over eastern China was simulated to decrease by 30% by climate change alone. The climate-induced changes in fine particulate matter (PM_(2.5)) concentrations were simulated to have large seasonal variation. Due to significant decreases in nitrate concentrations in the winter, wintertime PM_(2.5) concentrations over eastern China were simulated to decrease by 15% over 2000-2100. Furthermore, the changes in summertime PM_(2.5) concentrations during 2000-2100 were found to have different patterns in northern and southern China; PM_(2.5) concentrations in northern China would increase by 16%, while those in southern China would decrease by 9%.