Temperature and consecutive cold days are commonly used to evaluate rice sterile-type cold damage in Northeast China. In order to realize quantitative evaluation and prediction, it is necessary to construct a comprehensive index of sterile- type cold damage using multiple factors. Based on a temperature suitability model, temperature and consecutive cold days, and considering the effects of three fundamental points temperature on rice's growing process, this study constructed the rice sterile-type cold damage index (RSCDI) by using the data of daily mean temperature and rice growth period in recent 50 years in Liaoning Province. It then analyzed the occurrence tendency of rice sterile- type cold damage, and forecast cold damage in Liaoning Province with RSCDI. The results are as follows: (1) During the 50 years from 1961 to 2010, local light cold damage happened in 20 years, local moderate cold damage occurred in 14 years, local severe cold damage occurred in 10 years, and there was no occurrence of regional and large scale cold damage; (2) The highest frequency of cold damage was in the 1970s. The frequency decreased from 1981 to 2000, and the lowest frequency of cold damage was in the 1990s. But there was an increasing trend after 2001. Cold damage mainly occurred in the western and northeastern parts of Liaoning Province. With climate warming, the frequency decreased to some extent, but the occurrence of rice sterile- type cold damage was uncertain in Liaoning Province; (3) The forecast of rice sterile-type cold damage in Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2014 using RSCDI shows that cold damage will not appear in most areas, but in Jianping County moderate damage may occur in the flowering period in 2012 and 2014.